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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (5/29)

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Happy Memorial Day, everyone! We hope to continue our recent 5-1 run and add some winning bets to your holiday weekend.

Here are our MLB best bets for Monday.

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Cleveland Guardians (+120) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-142)| O/U 8 (-115/-105)

Baltimore Orioles righty Tyler Wells is not known as a strikeout pitcher but has struck out at least seven in three straight starts, running his K/9 rate in May to 9.96. However, Wells’ 4.07 xERA compared to his 3.47 actual ERA suggests he is due for regression. This is especially true from a strikeout perspective, as his velocity is down on every pitch except for his cutter (which he only throws 17.7% of the time), which has us expecting his strikeout percentage to end up closer to his career-low 18% from last year than the 24.8% rate he currently is pitching to now.

The Cleveland Guardians are built to negate Wells’ biggest recent strength, as they have the second-lowest strikeout rate (19.3%) of any team in the majors. Meanwhile, Logan Allen is more deserving of a 1-2 record through six starts, as the team is 3-3 in those appearances, but has scored just seven combined runs in those losses.

The Under is 4-0-1 in Allen’s last five starts, and Cleveland has won seven of ten against Baltimore. Thus, we expect the Guardians to provide Allen with just enough run support to scratch out a victory.

Pick: Guardians ML (+120)

Colorado Rockies (+160) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-190) | O/U 9.5 (-122/+100)

Ryne Nelson does not inspire much confidence these days, as he is winless in his last eight starts while pitching to a 5.05 ERA in that span. However, he has allowed just one earned run in his previous 11 1/3 innings pitched and is due for regression from a wins perspective, given that the team has recorded victories in his last three starts.

Nelson’s only career start against the Colorado Rockies came at Coors Field when he was tagged for six earned runs in four innings. However, we expect Nelson to fare much better in this start against a Rockies lineup that ranks 29th in wRC+ overall and has the worst on-base percentage (.299) of any National League team in road games.

The Rockies are an NL-worst 9-16 on the road and have covered the runline in fewer than 50% of their games (86-88 runline record as road ‘dogs) since 2021. Arizona, meanwhile, has won six consecutive Monday games, and with Nelson coming off a quality start in his last appearance, we expect it to run that number to seven.

Pick: Diamondbacks RL (-102)

Minnesota Twins (+108) vs. Houston Astros (-126) | O/U 8 (-110/-110)

The Houston Astros are 14-3 in their last 17 games but have feasted on the lowly Oakland Athletics for six of those wins and are just 3-3 against teams over .500 in that span. They enter the day 4.5 games better than the Minnesota Twins, but a big reason is their 6-3 compared to Minnesota’s poor 4-10 record in one-run games.

Twins righty Sonny Gray has not had the best success against Houston, allowing a .302/.366/.387 slash line in 63 combined at-bats to current Astros hitters. But while the OBA is high, the Astros have not done much damage, with just three of their 19 hits going for extra bases. Gray has done a great job keeping the ball in the yard, not allowing a home run in ten consecutive starts spanning 56 innings. Thus, it will be difficult for Houston to score runs against a pitcher who does not allow the long ball, especially since he ranks in the top fifth of all pitchers in xBA and xSLG.

Conversely, Houston’s J.P. France was tagged for six runs over 3 2/3 innings in his first-ever start at Minute Maid Park, and his .340 OBA against right-handed batters is troublesome when facing the likes of Byron Buxton and company.

The Twins have lost four straight road games against right-handed starting pitchers, but they have too much of an edge in the starting pitching matchup to pass up their plus-money odds.

Pick: Twins ML (+108)

Also make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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