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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (5/8)

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We enter off our most successful week of the season with plenty of momentum to attack a new slate of games.

Here are our MLB best bets for Monday.

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Detroit Tigers (+160) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-190)| O/U 8 (-110/-110)

The Cleveland Guardians lost their first series of the year against the Detroit Tigers and are just 11-11 in their last 22 games against their division rivals. However, the Guardians hope that youngster Tanner Bibee will keep the Tigers off balance a couple of times through the lineup, as this is Detroit’s first look at him in his third MLB start.

Bibee has pitched to a solid 0.909 WHIP and 10.6 K/9 rate in two starts and has shown impressive command with zero walks in 11 innings. The Tigers have won five of six games and two consecutive series against the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets, but we do not expect them to pound out 10+ hits today, a key number since they are 8-0 when doing so. Conversely, we expect a Guardians offense that has scored four or fewer runs in seven consecutive games to show up against Tigers southpaw Joey Wentz, who ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in barrels, xSLG, and strikeout percentage.

Cleveland is 17-7 in its last 24 games against AL Central teams, and we are opting for more value with the runline since we expect it to win again.

Pick: Guardians -1.5 runs (+114)

Colorado Rockies (+152) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-180) | O/U 8.5 (+100/-122)

The Colorado Rockies sent lefty Kyle Freeland to the mound once this season against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and it was easily his worst outing of the year. That start was the only time in seven appearances this year that Freeland failed to complete five innings, as he was tagged for nine runs (seven earned) in just 2 2/3 innings. Thus, another date with the Rockies’ lefty is the perfect remedy for a Pirates team that has lost a season-high seven consecutive games, as the Rockies went a National League worst 27-54 on the road last season. The Rockies are already five games under .500 on the road this season (third-worst in the National League), and the Pirates have feasted on poor competition, going 12-6 against teams under .500 this year. Furthermore, the Pirates are 13-0 this season when hitting 2+ home runs. The Rockies have allowed at least two home runs in three of Freeland’s last five starts, including a 14-3 home loss to Pittsburgh on April 17.

Mitch Keller is second among all Pirates starters in WHIP (1.20) and WAR (0.6). And per Stuff+, his fastball has been electric, ranking 18th among all qualified starting pitchers. Keller also has a 0.16 Win Probability Added rating (per FanGraphs), while the league average is -2.61. We expect him to lead the team to victory against southpaw Kyle Freeland, as the Pirates are 6-4 against left-handed starting pitchers this season.

DO TRENDS

The Pirates have won each of the previous four meetings with the Rockies, and five of the last seven in Pittsburgh. Back the Pirates to end their long losing streak tonight.

Pick: Pirates ML (-180)

Chicago White Sox (-134) vs. Kansas City Royals (+114) | O/U 8.5 (-122/+100)

Zack Greinke’s 5.25 ERA is on pace to be the second-worst of his career (his worst since pitching to a 5.80 ERA in 2005), and he has finished with a worse FIP than his current 5.00 number just once in his career. However, Greinke has had success against the Chicago White Sox, going 5-0 in his last nine starts against them dating back to 2010 and pitching to a 3.08 ERA in that span. In addition, he has held current White Sox hitters to a .284/.311/.383 slash line in 141 combined at-bats. This is also a three-star play, as Chicago already had many injured players in its lineup. It is shortened even further by Eloy Jimenez’s recent appendectomy that will sideline him for the next 4-6 weeks.

On the other side, White Sox ace Dylan Cease has held current Royals to a .210/.259/.387 slash line in 81 combined at-bats. That includes holding two of Kansas City’s better hitters, Salvador Perez and Hunter Dozier, to a combined 9-for-45 (.200) and three extra-base hits.

The Under is 22-9-1 in the previous 32 meetings between these teams and has cashed in 12 of the last 17 in Kansas City. However, we are taking the bullpens out of the equation and banking on a low-scoring game through the first five innings.

Pick: White Sox-Royals First Five Innings Under 4.5 runs (-110)

Check out our other best bets for Monday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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