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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (6/12)

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Raise your hand if you had the Pittsburgh Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers, and Tampa Bay Rays in first place on June 12. Three of those four surprise teams are in action today, but which one makes our trio of best bets to start the week?

Here are our MLB best bets for Monday.

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Cincinnati Reds (+102) vs. Kansas City Royals (-120)| O/U 9 (-102/-120)

Zack Greinke leads all Kansas City Royals starters in WAR despite the team going 3-10 in his 13 starts and losing five straight. However, Greinke has allowed three or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven, as the lack of team success when he toes the rubber has more to do with an offense that has managed nine total runs in the five consecutive losses with him on the mound.

We expect the offense to rebound today against Luke Weaver, who has pitched to a 4.48 ERA in four starts against teams that entered Sunday under .500. Weaver ranks in the bottom fifth of the league in hard-hit contact and barrels and the bottom third in whiff percentage.
Kansas City is 3-3 in its last six “coin-flip” games, where it had moneyline odds between +100 and -120. And while it is 25 games under .500 against teams with a winning record, it is a much more respectable 7-9 at home against teams with losing records.

This is a contrarian play, as the Reds have won each of their last four road games against right-handed starting pitchers, and the Royals are 0-5 in Greinke’s last five interleague starts. However, we trust the oddsmakers who made Kansas City the favorite and expect it to win for the third time in its previous eight home games against Cincinnati.

Pick: Royals ML (-120)

Tampa Bay Rays (-270) vs. Oakland Athletics (+220) | O/U 8.5 (-122/+100)

Zach Eflin is one of seven pitchers with 8+ wins on the season, and the Tampa Bay Rays are getting affordable odds on the run line against the Oakland A’s, considering they enter on a five-game winning streak. The A’s made history when their winning streak reached four games, as per OptaSTATS, they were the first team with a sub-.200 winning percentage through 50 games to rattle off four consecutive road wins. However, going home and playing in an empty stadium may be the worst thing for their current momentum. 

Of all players with eight or more wins, Eflin has done it in the fewest amount of starts (11), has the lowest WHIP (0.96), and by far the best K:BB ratio (7.33:1). Six of Eflin’s 11 starts have been quality starts, so there is not much to worry about from a length perspective. We are not deterred by the fact that Eflin allowed a season-high nine hits in his first start against Oakland this season, but he has lowered his OBA from .273 to .223 since then.

The A’s counter with James Kaprielian, who ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in strikeout rate, walk percentage, and xERA/xwOBA. Kaprielian is due for regression as his xSLG on his fastball is 103 points higher than the actual slugging percentage allowed, which is an issue considering he throws the pitch 42% of the time. 

Oakland has lost 12 consecutive games against teams from the American League. In addition, The A’s are 0-7 in Kaprielian’s last seven starts against AL East opponents and have not won any of their previous six home games following a road trip of 7+ days. Look for Tampa Bay to cruise to an easy victory tonight despite the low 7.5-run total, as the Over has cashed in each of Oakland’s last six games against AL East opponents.

Pick: Rays RL (-166)

Miami Marlins (+110) vs. Seattle Mariners (-130) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)

Seattle Mariners rookie Bryce Miller started on fire with five consecutive quality starts, and he allowed two or fewer hits or zero earned runs in four of them. Since then, Miller has allowed 15 runs on 19 hits over his last seven innings, though the Miami Marlins offense is less potent than the New York Yankees or Texas Rangers lineups that have done the recent damage.

Miami ranks 17th or worse in OPS, ISO, and wRC+ in road games and 26th overall in runs scored away from home. The Marlins offense is heavily predicated on power production from Jorge Soler (19 home runs and 38 RBIs on the season), but he had just one extra-base hit and seven RBIs this month before yesterday’s two-home run explosion.

Miller ranks in the 97th percentile in walk percentage, and only one Marlins hitter other than Luis Arraez entering Sunday had a BABIP higher than .333 (min. 120 PA). Conversely, Seattle should be thankful it is facing a left-handed pitcher, as it has won 13 of its last 16 home games against southpaws. The Mariners might be ten games under .500 (10-20) against teams with a winning record this year, but we are comforted in knowing Jesus Luzardo’s road ERA is 5.13, and his OBA is 112 points higher on the road than it is at home.

Pick: Mariners ML (-130)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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