Navigate

MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (6/26)

by |

Today’s Major League Baseball slate may be small, with just six games on tap, but we have scoured the action and identified our three most confident plays, with one run line, one moneyline, and one team total comprising our selections.

Limited Time Offer: Buy one month of BettingPros Premium, get one month FREE (iOS app-only) >>

Today’s Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Cincinnati Reds (+116) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-136)| O/U 9.5 (-115/-105)

Many will be soured on the Cincinnati Reds, as their 12-game winning streak ended by losing two out of three games to the Atlanta Braves over the weekend. However, losing two one-run games in which the team scored six runs apiece is nothing to be ashamed of when facing the team favored to win the pennant.

The Reds are one of four NL teams 3+ games over .500 on the road, and they have won three of their five road series against teams currently over .500. Cincinnati is also 6-1 in Brandon Williamson’s seven appearances. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles may be 18 games over .500 but have had just one winning streak of more than two games since May 25. This is a three-star play as Cincinnati ranks top-six in BABIP against left-handed pitching, and Orioles southpaw Cole Irvin ranks in the first percentile in xBA and xSLG while ranking in the 16th percentile in whiff percentage.

Cincinnati has won four straight Monday games, four consecutive series openers, and is 6-0 in its previous six interleague games. So while it has lost four straight at Camden Yards, this Reds team is playing too well not to find value in their plus-money odds.

Pick: Reds ML (+116)

Minnesota Twins (+172) vs. Atlanta Braves (-205) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115)

This is a matchup of the league’s best strikeout pitcher against the team that strikes out most frequently. What could go wrong?

Per ESPN Stats & Info, Atlanta Braves righty Spencer Strider made history in his last start, becoming the second pitcher in the previous 122 years to throw 300+ strikeouts over the first 35 starts of his career. In addition, the 2.63 gap in K/9 rate between him and the next-highest pitcher is more than the gap between second place and the 21st-ranked pitcher.

Strider has induced a whiff percentage of 47.6% or higher on his two secondary pitches and now faces a Minnesota Twins lineup with the worst strikeout rate (27.2%) in MLB. And if Twins outfielder Byron Buxton were again ruled out with back spasms after not playing since leaving Saturday’s game against the Detroit Tigers, that would severely shorten their lineup that already ranks 24th in wRC+ on the road this season.

The Over has cashed in each of Strider’s last seven home starts, but the Braves offense is largely responsible, as they have averaged better than seven runs per game in that span. The Twins have been held to four or fewer runs in six of their last nine road games, and we do not expect an offensive outburst against a pitcher of Strider’s quality.

Pick: Twins team total Under 3.5 (-130)

Detroit Tigers (+172) vs. Texas Rangers (-205) | O/U 9 (-104/-118)

The Texas Rangers have built a six-game lead in the AL West in large part because of how they have dismantled teams with losing records. Texas has won 11 consecutive series against teams currently with a losing record, and its 17 games over .500 record against losing teams is the best in baseball.

Southpaw Andrew Heaney has three wins in his last seven starts but probably deserves better, given his 2.72 ERA in that span. Though Heaney has failed to complete five innings in two of his previous four starts, those two came against divisional opponents more familiar with his arsenal, and he allowed four walks in each of those starts. And while the Detroit Tigers rank in the top ten in walk rate against left-handed pitchers, they are 24th or worse in wRC+ and BABIP against southpaws. Even after Heaney gives way to the bullpen, Tigers hitters are slugging .332 vs. relief pitchers this season, second-worst in MLB, per Inside Edge.

On the other side, Tigers southpaw Matthew Boyd has allowed nine runs in 11 innings in the two starts he has made against teams with a winning record this month, so we expect him to be dealt his first road loss (he is 4-0 in seven road starts this season). Texas has the third-best run line record (133-102, 7.2% ROI) since last season, and we expect another big victory in this series opener.

Pick: Rangers -1.5 (-102)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App