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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (7/24)

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With just one week left until the Major League Baseball trade deadline, many teams on the fringe seemingly change between buyers and sellers with each passing day. Which teams will continue to build momentum, and which will have a more negative outlook at the end of this significant last week of July?

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

San Francisco Giants (+126) vs. Detroit Tigers (-148) | O/U 8.5 (-104/-118)

Lately, we have been interested in backing the Under whenever the San Francisco Giants have faced a left-handed pitcher. San Francisco has been awful against southpaws this month, ranking 26th or worse in wRC+, OPS, wOBA, and batting average in that span. Since the All-Star Break, they have faced Rich Hill, Andrew Abbott, and MacKenzie Gore, and all three southpaws threw quality starts, with the Giants combining for five hits and a 14:4 K:BB ratio in 13 innings over the latter two starting pitchers.

The Giants should have difficulty scoring runs against Tarik Skubal, who has thrown eight scoreless innings in his two home appearances this year while allowing a .080 OBA. San Francisco has the unenviable task of making this one-day stop in Detroit as this is a makeup of a game postponed from April, and it comes in with no momentum, to begin with. The Giants have matched their longest losing streak of the season (five games) while getting outscored by 21 runs. However, we expect Ross Stripling to turn in a good outing for the Giants, as he has flown under the radar with a 3.38 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 3.36 FIP in his last four starts since coming back from injury.

This is a contrarian play, as San Francisco has cashed the Over in each of its last five road games and is 8-3 in Detroit’s last 11.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-118)

Kansas City Royals (+158) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-188) | O/U 8.5 (-115/-105)

The Kansas City Royals are 6-18 in their last 24 games and have averaged just 2.1 runs per game in those 18 losses, getting held to one or fewer runs eight times. They now face Cleveland Guardians rookie Logan Allen, who has allowed an OBA of .227 or lower against his three primary pitches. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s Ryan Yarbrough has been one out away on two occasions from entering this game with three consecutive quality starts. However, his lone quality start in that span came at Cleveland on July 9, when he allowed just one run on six hits over six innings. He also tied a season-high with five strikeouts (impressive considering the Guardians have MLB’s lowest strikeout rate) and eight ground-ball outs.

Most trends point to a low-scoring pitcher’s duel between these AL Central rivals. The Royals and Six Guardians are two of the seven most profitable teams to the Under this season. Furthermore, Cleveland is one of the most profitable teams to the Under at home this season, with it going 31-17-1 in the 49 games at Progressive Field and 23-9-1 with the Guardians as home favorites.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-105)

Seattle Mariners (-120) vs. Minnesota Twins (+102) | O/U 8 (-108/-112)

Six days ago, Seattle Mariners righty Luis Castillo was electric with an 11-strikeout performance against the Minnesota Twins. However, facing Castillo twice in such a short span should favor the hitters. Minnesota would be wise to take a different approach against the righty, being more aggressive early in the count to avoid getting to two strikes as often.

Minnesota has struck out at an MLB-worst 27% clip over the last 14 days, which has led to Castillo’s inflated projected strikeout total. But recent history suggests he is in for fewer K’s today. In the last two instances that Castillo faced an opponent for the second time this season, his strikeout total was much lower in each rematch. Castillo went from five to three strikeouts in his two starts against the Houston Astros, while his strikeout total lowered from nine to six in his two starts against the Texas Rangers.

Minnesota entered Sunday slashing .266/.355/.513 after the All-Star Break compared to a .232/.309/.400 slash line in the first half of the season. The Under is 4-0-1 in the Twins’ five games as home underdogs this season, but we expect their offense to break out for runs tonight.

Pick: Twins team total Over 3.5 (-122)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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