Navigate

MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (7/31)

by |

Many big names around Major League Baseball were dealt over the weekend, and several more are likely to follow in the next 24 hours as Tuesday’s trade deadline draws near. But how will that affect the teams in action over the next two days?

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Milwaukee Brewers (-200) vs. Washington Nationals (+168) | O/U 8.5 (-122/+100)

This wager is a huge leap of faith that the Milwaukee Brewers can pick themselves up after a three-game road sweep at the Atlanta Braves. While Milwaukee’s pitching staff was torched for 29 runs in the three games, it can take positives out of the six runs per game it averaged in the series.

The Brewers face Washington Nationals righty Jake Irvin, who has allowed a .280 OBA to left-handed hitters. In addition, Irvin has a 2.01 HR/9 rate against lefties and a 1.08 HR/9 rate against right-handed batters, so we have confidence in lefties like Christian Yelich to set the table offensive. Meanwhile, Corbin Burnes has allowed just five earned runs in his last 27 innings, despite three of those starts coming against NL Central rivals who are more familiar with his arsenal.

Burnes has allowed only one barrel the entire month of July while pitching to a 2.43 FIP, .092 OBA, and 13.8% SwStr. If Milwaukee’s offense is even a fraction of how good it was against Atlanta, Burnes should lead it to a runline cover.

Pick: Brewers -1.5 (-122)

Baltimore Orioles (+126) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-148) | O/U 9 (-110/-110)

The Toronto Blue Jays are 6-1 in Chris Bassitt’s last seven home starts, and the opposition has totaled just ten runs in that span. However, given the general lack of run support Bassitt receives, the safer play is the Under rather than the Blue Jays’ moneyline.

Bassitt has thrown quality starts in eight of his ten appearances while pitching to a 2.24 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, .167 OBA, and almost exactly one strikeout per inning (64 K’s in 64 1/3 IP). And ESPN Stats & Info laid out how dangerous of a 1-2 punch he and teammate Kevin Gausman can be in a short series if the Blue Jays make the playoffs.

Bassitt is accustomed to pitching without run support, winning three of his last five starts while his team has provided an average of 2.57 runs. However, while the Blue Jays ranked outside the top half of the league entering Sunday since May 20, they were still an AL-best 34-25 in that span, with the Orioles holding the second-best record. Baltimore has the AL’s fourth-best team ERA and FIP in July, so we should be in for a pitcher’s duel tonight.

Pick: Under 9 (-110)

San Diego Padres (-205) vs. Colorado Rockies (+172) | O/U 12 (+100/-122)

So much for Juan Soto to the New York Yankees, and Blake Snell and Josh Hader being dealt. The San Diego Padres are an NL-West best 6-4 in their last ten games, and a three-game sweep of the Texas Rangers has them just five games out of a wild card spot, which means they likely won’t be doing much selling at the trade deadline.

The Padres rank fourth in slugging and eighth in wOBA and wRC+ in road games against left-handed pitchers. Now they go to Coors Field, the most hitter-friendly park in baseball, and face southpaw Austin Gomber, who has quality starts in four of his last five. However, he also has a 7.19 home ERA, the second-worst of all qualified starting pitchers. Gomber is also tied for the most home runs allowed in home starts (14), and his .315 OBA is third-worst.

Padres righty Seth Lugo also has four quality starts in his last five appearances, and we trust him more in this matchup, primarily because of his career-best walk rate (4.7%) and wOBA of .285 or better on two of his three primary pitches.

The Padres have covered the runline in half of their away games (26-26), while the Colorado Rockies are just 10-15 against the runline against NL West teams. And considering Colorado is just 6-19 SU in those 25 games, we do not mind laying the 1.5 runs for added value.

Pick: Padres -1.5 (-130)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App