MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (8/14)
Yesterday was a wild day for Major League Baseball bettors. The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals overcame four and five-run deficits in the ninth innings yesterday to win, while the San Francisco Giants avoided their first home sweep with a walk-off home run when down to their last out against the Texas Rangers. What kind of craziness is in store today?
Today's Best MLB Bets
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Houston Astros (-148) vs. Miami Marlins (+126) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)
Houston Astros southpaw Framber Valdez was named the AL Pitcher of the Week for July 31-August 6 despite making just one start in that stretch. But what a start it was, as he no-hit the Cleveland Guardians and now has the second-most games with 7+ IP (11) in the majors. However, Valdez has been a subpar pitcher outside of the no-hitter of late, recording 15 or fewer outs in two of his last four starts while allowing 21 earned runs in 22 innings dating back to July 15 outside of his no-hitter.
Including the no-hitter, Valdez’s 6.10 ERA since July 14 is fifth-worst among all starting pitchers, and he has allowed a staggering 22.2% HR/FB% in that span. Now he faces a Miami Marlins lineup in their much better hitting split, as they rank first in the majors in BABIP (.364) and overall batting average (.303) against left-handed pitchers while also ranking top-five in wRC+ and OPS.
We also expect the Astros lineup to have success against Miami’s Braxton Garrett. Miami is 3-0 in Garrett’s last three starts, but opponents are averaging five runs per game in that span and 5.4 runs per game over his previous five starts.
Both teams are profitable to the Under, with the Under cashing in 54 of Houston’s last 98 games and 35 of Miami’s last 60 home games, but we are comfortable making the contrarian play tonight.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Angels (+152) vs. Texas Rangers (-180) | O/U 9 (+100/-122)
Max Scherzer has been a slightly better second-half pitcher than a first-half pitcher, as his 3.08 ERA and .678 career winning percentages post-All-Star Break are better than his 3.17 ERA and .665 winning percentages in the first half. Scherzer is on track to improve those second-half numbers significantly, as he has made four quality starts in his last five appearances and lowered his ERA from 4.31 to 3.88. He has recorded wins in both starts since being traded to the Texas Rangers, and expect him to lead the team to a big win over a Los Angeles Angels team that is just 3-7 since the trade deadline, the worst record in the AL in that span.
Scherzer has held current Angels hitters to a .147/.149/.196 slash line in 102 combined career at-bats, with four regulars (C.J. Cron, Mike Moustakas, Randal Grichuk, and Brandon Drury) in the Angels lineup combining for just three extra-base hits in 79 at-bats against Scherzer (and a .165 average). Scherzer has six plus strikeouts in each of his last 10 starts, and he should dominate an Angels lineup that has struck out with the highest frequency (27.7% K%) of any AL team over the previous 14 days.
Texas has covered the runline in 60.4 percent of its games as home favorites (29-19) and has covered the runline in an even more impressive 63.6 percent of its divisional games (21-12). And considering that Los Angeles is 3-10 in Patrick Sandoval’s last 13 starts while covering the runline in just nine of those losses, we are opting for better value and laying the -1.5 runs tonight.
Pick: Rangers -1.5 (+115)
Arizona Diamondbacks (OFF) vs. Colorado Rockies | O/U OFF
The Arizona Diamondbacks are 7-20 in the second half of the season and are just 1-3 in Merrill Kelly’s starts in that span. However, not much of that lack of success is Kelly’s fault, as the team has given him just two runs of support in his last three outings, getting out-scored 9-2 in that span.
Kelly has a team-best .218 OBA and .271 BABIP, and his latest outing was arguably his most impressive, holding the Los Angeles Dodgers scoreless over six innings despite an 0-10 record in 15 career starts against them. We similarly expect Kelly to continue to exorcize his Coors Field demons, as he has pitched to a 5.28 ERA in five career starts there. However, he has allowed just two earned runs in his previous 13 innings there dating back to last season. He should once again have success against a Colorado Rockies lineup that ranks dead-last in wRC+ in home games this season, despite batting .325 on balls in play (fourth-best). Colorado has been held to one or fewer runs in five of its last eight games, and we expect Kelly to throw another gem tonight.
Pick: Rockies team total Under (play up to 3.5) (OFF)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.