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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (8/28)

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The early-week action around Major League Baseball will be thrilling as September draws near, as three of Monday’s matchups feature the top two teams in their respective divisions. Which one of these high-profile matchups makes today’s best bets column?

      Today's Best MLB Bets

      (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

      New York Yankees (-104) vs. Detroit Tigers (-112) | O/U 9 (-110/-110) 

      Want an idea of how bad things have gotten for the New York Yankees? Look at how Katie Sharp detailed the wrong kind of history they made over the weekend.

      The Yankees followed up the two-hit effort on Saturday with four hits on Sunday and have looked non-competitive in countless at-bats. They are a season-high six games under .500 and have won just one series since July 1, the fewest in MLB. Those are big reasons they are road underdogs, and rightfully so, to a Detroit Tigers team that is 12 games under .500 and is just 28-37 at home this season.

      Detroit Tigers righty Reece Olson has allowed 10 earned runs in his last 7 1/3 innings but has allowed a .215 OBA in nine home appearances (seven starts) and has pitched much better than his 5.53 ERA at Comerica Park would suggest. Meanwhile, Yankees righty Luis Severino is coming off his second appearance this season with 6+ IP and one or fewer hits allowed but is 0-6 with a 9.56 ERA in nine road appearances (eight starts). Until he proves himself in starts away from home, we will not overvalue him for a great home start.

      Pick: Tigers Moneyline (-112)

      Cleveland Guardians (+138) vs. Minnesota Twins (-164) | O/U 8.5 (-108/-112)

      Minnesota Twins righty Kenta Maeda was a vast unknown entering this season, coming off Tommy John surgery. With how his 2023 campaign began, it was uncertain whether or not he was in the team’s future plans. Maeda is an entirely different pitcher from the one that went 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA in four starts in April. He was given a chance to hit the reset button with a nearly two-month IL stint and returned with a vengeance, allowing eight or fewer earned runs in eight of his next nine starts.

      Maeda has pitched to a 2.68 ERA overall since his late-June IL stint, but the most surprising number is his 32.2% strikeout rate. The increased punchouts are a big product of an increase in fastball velocity, averaging 89.5 mph in April and peaking at 91.4 mph in August. By comparison, his fastball averaged 91.8 mph when he finished second in the Cy Young voting and led the league in WHIP (0.750) in 2020.

      Cleveland will offer stiff competition from a strikeout perspective, as it whiffs at the lowest rate in the majors. However, not striking out is one of the only things the Guardians do at an elite rate, as they are MLB’s fifth-worst scoring offense and second-worst in slugging percentage. Cleveland’s team total Under is 8-4 in its previous 12 games (+3.55 units, 27% ROI), and we expect it to cash again.

      Pick: Guardians team total Under 3.5 (-106)

      Cincinnati Reds (+104) vs. San Francisco Giants (-122) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115)

      If tonight’s matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants is anything like their first four, we should be in for some tight, low-scoring affairs. Three of the first four games were decided by two or fewer runs, and the Under went 3-1 in their four-game series at the Great American Ball Park. Now the matchup switches to Oracle Park, which plays slightly less than neutral (-1%) from a runs standpoint but decreases home runs at a 26% clip, per Ballpark Pal. That should tremendously help Reds rookie Andrew Abbott, who has had trouble inducing ground balls. Abbott’s GO/AO ratio has not exceeded 0.46 in his three months at the Major League level.

      The Giants counter with their No. 1 prospect (and most touted pitching prospect since Madison Bumgarner), Kyle Harrison. Harrison is making his second big-league start, and his debut was up-and-down with a .430 xSLG and .480wOBA. However, his swing-and-miss stuff was as electric as advertised, as he produced a 31.3% strikeout percentage in 3 1/3 innings. 

      These two bullpens rank in the top five in the majors in innings pitched. And while San Francisco’s bullpen usage is highly a product of manager Gabe Kapler using starters in long-inning relief roles, Cincinnati’s has been a more traditional usage. The wear is showing; it ranks bottom-10 in FIP since July 1. San Francisco’s F5 team total Under is 35-18 in its last 51 games, so we prefer to take bullpens out of the equation with this wager, especially avoiding Cincinnati’s shaky relievers.

      Pick: First five innings Under 4.5 (-128)

      Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:


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      Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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