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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (9/25)

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A 3-0 sweep with our last MLB Best Bets article from Friday, including a +205 cash with the Kansas City Royals moneyline, has us entering the final week of the regular season with plenty of momentum.

Even though the week starts with a small four-game slate, we have identified a solid moneyline play and two wagers on totals we like in games we expect to be pitcher’s duels.

    Monday's Best MLB Bets

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Arizona Diamondbacks (-118) vs. New York Yankees (+100) | O/U 7.5 (-105/-115) 

    The New York Yankees have been abysmal against right-handed pitching this year, with a sub-.500 record (63-64) in games started by righties. They rank 25th in wRC+, 27th in wOBA, and are batting a collective .221 in that split, which is better than only the Oakland Athletics. The Yankees survive primarily on home runs, but the Arizona Diamondbacks’ righty, Merrill Kelly, has done a great job keeping the ball in the yard of late, allowing just two home runs in his previous 36 1/3 innings.

    The Diamondbacks are one of six NL teams over .500 on the road this season. Additionally, we do not expect the Yankees’ righty Clarke Schmidt to have much left in the tank in his last two starts, as he has thrown 151 innings this year after a previous career-high of 57 2/3. These moneyline odds are relatively low given the respect oddsmakers have for Schmidt’s 25 appearances allowing three or fewer earned runs. Still, the Diamondbacks have much more to play for, with just a 1.5-game lead for a wild card spot, and we expect them to play this series finale with urgency.

    Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-118)

    Houston Astros (+102) vs. Seattle Mariners (-120) | O/U 7 (-128/+104)

    New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole may have already wrapped up the Cy Young Award, but Mariners righty Luis Castillo is making a solid case for a unanimous second-place finish.

    Castillo has won seven of his previous eight starts and has six quality starts in that span. He has recorded eight strikeouts in each his last three outings and struck out six-plus batters in four of his previous five. In his eight-strikeout effort in his last appearance, Castillo became the eighth pitcher in Mariners history to record at least 200 strikeouts in a season. In that torrid stretch since August 10, Castillo’s Stuff+ rating of 88 does not jump off the page, but he is throwing his fastball more than 50% of the time and challenging hitters with an overpowering arsenal. The Astros have the third-lowest strikeout rate in that stretch, but they rank 19th in BABIP, which does not bode well for their chances of doing damage against Castillo with balls put in play.

    On the other side, Astros righty Justin Verlander knows a thing or two about pitching in playoff races and meaningful games altogether. He tends to rise to the occasion when games matter most, as his 2.88 career ERA in September/October is his best of any singular month, while his 1.074 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 rate are tied for second-best. The Over has cashed in 53.6% of Houston’s games this season but just 45.9% of the time (17-20-2) when it is an underdog.

    Pick: Under 7 Total Runs (+104)

    San Diego Padres (-110) vs. San Francisco Giants (-106) | O/U 7 (+100/-122)

    This is one of Blake Snell’s last chances to polish his NL Cy Young Award resume, and he could not have hand-picked a better opponent. San Francisco ranks 24th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS against southpaws this season and is dead-last in ISO in that split. The Giants also have the third-highest strikeout rate among NL teams in home games against left-handed pitching this year, so we expect Snell to pitch to the caliber of his 1.43 ERA and 0.93 WHIP that he has over his previous seven outings. 

    Snell’s 2.13 road ERA is 0.45 runs better than the next-best pitcher, and he is pitching at Oracle Park, which suppresses home runs by 25% and runs by a 4% rate, per BallPark Pal. On the other side, Logan Webb toes the rubber for the Giants, and his 2.37 home ERA and 14 quality starts at home lead the majors. And per Codify, he also has gotten the least run support among all qualified starting pitchers this season.

    Pick: Under 7 Total Runs (-122)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:


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    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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