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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (9/4)

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Happy Labor Day, everyone! Today, we are treated to a holiday-impacted Major League Baseball slate, as seven of the 11 matchups are played in the afternoon window. There are many intriguing matchups, including an AL West battle between two of the division’s top-three contenders and a series at Wrigley Field with massive NL Wild Card implications. Do any of these games make our best bets column?

      Today's Best MLB Bets

      (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

      San Francisco Giants (+116) vs. Chicago Cubs (-134) | O/U 9 (-105/-115) 

      The San Francisco Giants are a tough team to figure out, as their success against left-handed starting pitchers has a little “smoke and mirrors” feel. The Giants are eight games over .500 (23-15) against left-handed starting pitchers this year, but they are 27th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS in road games against southpaws. Now they face one of the best in Justin Steele, who is looking to match Spencer Strider for the league lead in wins (16) and has the second-best ERA of any starting pitcher (2.69). 

      Not much separates the two teams in the standings, but the Chicago Cubs have been 9.5 games better than the Giants since the All-Star Break, going 31-17 (second-best record in the NL) compared to San Francisco’s 21-26 second-half record. And while Giants righty Logan Webb still has the fifth-best odds to win the Cy Young Award (+3000 via DraftKings), his individual success (team leader in ERA, WAR, WHIP, strikeouts, and innings pitched) has not translated to wins, as the team is 13-15 in his 28 starts, including a -8 run differential in the last three (all losses).

      The high total for a matchup with two solid starting pitchers suggests the wind may be blowing out at Wrigley Field, but even if that is the case, we trust the Cubs offense more.

      Pick: Cubs Moneyline (-134)

      Minnesota Twins (-142) vs. Cleveland Guardians (+120) | O/U 8 (-122/+100)

      Lucas Giolito is pitching for his third team this year, which tells you everything you need to know about his performance. Give the Cleveland Guardians credit for not giving up on the season, claiming Giolito and two other pitchers off waivers, as they likely knew they had these three games against the Minnesota Twins to make one last run at the AL Central. And while the Guardians start the day a manageable five games out of first place, Giolito is damaged goods at this point, and we expect the Twins to take full advantage.

      Giolito has had success against Minnesota dating back to his days with the Chicago White Sox, holding current Twins hitters to a combined .201/.302/.353 slash line in 149 combined at-bats. However, the rut he is in is too much to ignore, as his teams are 1-9 in his last 10 starts, and the opposition has averaged 6.2 runs per game in that stretch. He has allowed at least three runs in seven of his previous eight outings, and while he has limited opponents to a respectable .264 BABIP in his last six starts, he has been burned by a 23.8% HR/FB rate.

      Pablo Lopez earned the win in four of his six August starts, and Minnesota is 8-3 in the last 11 times he has toed the rubber, with three wins over 74-plus win teams by a combined 23-7 in that span. The Twins have gone 6-6 in a brutal part of its schedule the last two weeks, and while they lost two of three games at home to the Guardians (the only team under .500 they played in that span), we expect them to shrink their magic number to clinch the AL Central with a win in this opener.

      Pick: Twins Moneyline (-142)

      Philadelphia Phillies (-116) vs. San Diego Padres (-102) | O/U 9 (-110/-110)

      This week, the Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff struggled against the Los Angeles Angels and Milwaukee Brewers lineups. Philadelphia allowed a .354 BABIP, an 18% HR/FB rate, and hard contact on 37.9 percent of balls in play. In addition, the entire staff pitched to a 5.37 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, even though its xFIP of 3.52 compared to its actual 4.18 FIP suggests those numbers could have been better.

      San Diego Padres slugger Juan Soto has homered in three straight games and driven in at least one run in four of five. He is in his much better hitting split with a .948 OPS against right-handed pitching compared to a .770 OPS against southpaws and has impressive numbers in a small sample against Phillies righty Taijuan Walker, slashing .364/.417/.545 in 11 at-bats while striking out just once. He is one of four Padres regulars with a wRC+ of 103 or better over the last seven days, while Fernando Tatis Jr. is the only one of the “big four” (Soto, Xander Bogaerts, and Manny Machado included) that has a strikeout rate of higher than 17 percent in that span. Thus, we expect San Diego to cash its team total Over for just the 57th time in its last 129 games.

      Pick: Padres Team Total Over 4.5 (+110)

      Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:


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      Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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