MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (8/26)
While college football's return may steal some of the spotlight today, we still have a Major League Baseball playoff race that's heating up. I'm keeping it on the diamond and I've narrowed in on a trio of best bets. Let's dive into the picks and analysis.
MLB YTD: 82-159 (-10.07 units)
Saturday's Best MLB Bets
Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.
Cleveland Guardians (+140) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-165) | 8.5 (-110/-110)
The afternoon gets underway with an American League showdown between the Guardians and Blue Jays. Cleveland earned the victory last night, beating Toronto 5-2. Today's game is scheduled for 3:07 p.m. ET from Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON.
With a total sitting at 8.5 runs, I have to lock in the under here. Logan Allen takes the ball for the Guardians while the Jays counter with Hyun Jin Ryu. Well, let's start with Ryu. The left-hander has made just four starts this year, but he has been phenomenal over the 19.0 innings pitched. He comes into this game at 2-1 and owns a 1.89 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He'll be tasked with taking on a Cleveland team that's just 22nd in OPS (.697) and 14th in team batting average (.254) over the last 15 days.
On the flip side, the Blue Jays have been one of the worst offenses in the MLB over the last 15 days, where they're 29th in both OPS (.661) and team batting average (.219). It's not a favorable matchup for them to get the bats going as they're running into the left-handed Allen. He owns a 1.96 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over four starts this month (23.0 IP). Ultimately, I think runs will be at a premium in this battle of the lefties.
Bet: Under 8.5 (-110)
Washington Nationals (+170) vs. Miami Marlins (-210) | 8.5 (-105/-115)
Washington continues to play great baseball as they've won 10 of their last 13 games overall. That includes last night's spoiler effort, a 7-4 win over a Marlins team that's trying desperately to secure a Wild Card position. Today's divisional matchup is set for 4:10 p.m. ET from LoanDepot Park in Miami, FL.
Similar to the game above, I don't see a ton of offense being produced here. I'm taking the under in this pitching matchup between Jake Irvin and Eury Perez. Starting with Irvin, he has tossed two consecutive quality starts, allowing just two earned runs over the 12.1 innings of work. In terms of the head-to-head numbers in this game, the right-hander has limited the Fish to a slash line of .267/.353/.333 over 15 at-bats. Just one of those 15 at-bats went for extra bases, a double by Joey Wendle.
As for Perez, we all know how great of a rookie campaign he is putting together. The right-hander enters this game at 5-4 and owns a 2.91 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Interestingly, his ERA drops to 1.96 at home and opponents are hitting just .189 against him at LoanDepot Park. Finally, in a small sample size of 11 at-bats, the Nats are slashing just .182/.250/.273 against Perez. 8.5 runs is simply too high here and I'm locking in the under.
Bet: Under 8.5 (-115)
St. Louis Cardinals (+155) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-190) | 9.0 (+100/-120)
The Phillies secured a 7-2 victory in last night's series opener against the Cardinals. They'll look to keep things rolling tonight when they send Zack Wheeler to the bump. The Red Birds counter with Dakota Hudson in this National League tilt slated for 7:15 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA.
St. Louis' tailspin continues as they're just 2-7 in their last nine games, which has dropped them to sole possession of last in the N.L. Central. I'm going to fade them while they're down and back the Phillies on the run line here. For starters, Philadelphia has been the best offense in baseball over the last 15 days. They're first overall in OPS (.891) and fourth in team batting average (.288). Philadelphia will square off against Hudson, who owns a pedestrian 3.95 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. As for the head-to-head numbers, Philly is slashing .289/.407/.467 against him over 45 at-bats. Bryce Harper is 4-5 (.800) with a home run and two doubles (so maybe take a look at his over on total bases).
The Cardinals, on the other hand, are running into Wheeler, who has owned them in the past. The current St. Louis roster is slashing just .195/.241/.207 against him over 82 at-bats. Only one of those 82 at-bats has gone for extra bases, a double from Paul Goldschmidt. I think it's worth a play on the even-money payout that comes with the Phillies on the run line. They should be able to stretch this lead out by at least a couple of runs.
Bet: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+100)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:
- Thor Nystrom's Best College Football Week 0 Bets
- NFL Preseason Week 3 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday
- MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup Odds & Picks
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