Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Sunday, August 21 (2022)
We were just a bit unlucky yesterday. We had the under in the Braves and Astros game, so of course, the game ended up going to extra innings. In a 5-4 game, there were seven runs scored in extra innings. Go figure.
We’ll rebound with today’s slate.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Normally I like to fade pitchers making their big league careers. But today, I’m confident in the Mets. New York has won two of three against Philadelphia and will look to earn another series win over the Phillies.
They’ll take on Kyle Gibson, who has been struggling analytically in the last 30 days. Gibson has a 4.72 xFIP and is only striking out 17.9% of batters in that time frame.
Gibson has allowed plenty of line drives when balls are batted into play. In turn, the Mets’ projected lineup is hitting 26.1% of line drives against righties in the last month. New York has a .377 wOBA against righties. Only Brandon Nimmo has struggled to find his way on the base paths.
Meanwhile, we don’t know much about Jose Butto. Let’s be honest. He’ll get the start today for the Mets. Anyway, what we do know is that Philadelphia has a .292 wOBA with an ISO of .131 against righties in the last 30 days. The Phillies have walked under 6% of the time and have really struggled as you get deeper down their order.
I’ll grab the Mets as the underdog in this game, thinking that they’ll earn the series win with a victory today.
Bet: Mets (+110 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers
It’s great to see Eduardo Rodriguez back in the Detroit rotation. He has officially rejoined the team following his odd absence.
Rodriguez signed a contract with Detroit in the offseason and then it seemed like he bailed on them in the middle of the year. When he began the season, he had an xFIP of 5.14 while walking 10.1% of batters faced. He wasn’t getting many ground balls and struggled to limit line drives.
He wasn’t good.
But Rodriguez has a track record of success. Maybe everything is behind him now and he can really focus on pitching. After all, the Angels have a .128 ISO and wOBA of .287 against lefties on the season with their projected lineup.
On the other hand, Shohei Ohtani will get the start for the Angels. He’s got a 2.99 xFIP in the last 30 days and has struck out 33.6% of batters in that time frame. He’s also walked just 4.8% of batters and has been sensational. Ohtani will face the worst offense in baseball.
Detroit is hitting a .085 ISO with a wOBA of .256 against righties in the last 30 days with 27.9% of strikeouts using their projected lineup. Ohtani should have a field day against Detroit.
I’ll take the under in this matchup.
Bet: Over 6.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Chicago has really developed Justin Steele. The left-hander will get the start today. In the last 30 days, Steele has had a 2.93 xFIP while striking out 29.1% of batters faced.
He’s also induced over 51% of ground balls when balls are batted into play and has limited extra-base hits very well in the last month.
Milwaukee is only hitting a .141 ISO with a wOBA of .277 against lefties in the last 30 days. Steele figures to have another quality outing.
On the other hand, Brandon Woodruff will start for the Brewers. He’s also been really good recently, holding a 3.70 xFIP. He’s struck out 26.8% of batters faced while only walking 6.5% of batters faced. Like Steele, Woodruff has limited extra-base hits and continues to keep his opponents’ wOBA down from both sides of the plate.
Chicago has struck out 23.6% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. You can’t score when you can’t make contact. Look for Woodruff to earn many strikeouts and a quality outing along with Steele.
I’m on the under.
Bet: Under 7 (-105 at DraftKings)
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