Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (9/18)
I asked for some more profit yesterday and received some profit yesterday after going 2-1 with Saturday’s MLB plays. That’s practically how the entire season has gone. We’ve been picking up two wins every three games pretty consistently this year.
We sure wouldn’t mind another profitable day with today’s slate.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
The Miami Marlins will send Sandy Alcantara against Washington’s Anibal Sanchez.
Alcantara will likely win the NL Cy Young this year, while Sanchez has an xFIP of 6.31 in the last 30 days.
Sanchez has struck out 14.4% of batters in the last month with over 13% of walks allowed. He’s also allowed nearly 45% of fly balls.
The Marlins don’t have the best lineup. However, young hitters like Bryan De La Cruz, Jordan Groshans, and Lewin Diaz. Miami will have many chances to score against Sanchez. especially with the bottom of the order.
On the other hand, Alcantara has had a 4.08 xFIP in the last 30 days with high strikeouts and low walks. He’s also allowed under 19% of line drives while inducing nearly 47% of ground balls when balls are batted into play.
The Nationals are usually aggressive at the plate, but that won’t work against Alcantara. Let’s take the Marlins on the runline.
Bet: Marlins -1.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
Joe Ryan will get the call for the Twins today. In his last game, he had a no-hitter through seven but couldn’t complete it due to a high pitch count.
Ryan has struck out over 30% of batters in the last 30 days. He’s allowed some power to righties, but only Oscar Gonzalez has hit for power against righties, as a righty, for the Guardians. Cleveland is hitting a .115 ISO and a .277 wOBA against righties over the last 30 days as a projected lineup.
Meanwhile, Cody Morris will take the hill for the Guardians with a 6.18 xFIP over the last month. He’s walked over 18% of batters and has allowed just under 26% of line drives when balls are hit into play. Lefties have a .399 wOBA and ISO of .350 against Morris in his last 24 plate appearances against lefties.
Morris has also allowed plenty of power to righties. Minnesota has been hitting 25.6% of line drives against righties in the last month against righties. Therefore, we’ll back the Twins in an almost pick-em’ game.
Bet: Twins (-115 at DraftKings)
Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox
Kris Bubic is expected to make his next start for the Royals today. The left-hander has a 5.58 xFIP over the last month and has struck out just 12.4% of batters that he’s faced.
To make things worse, Bubic has allowed over 30% of line drives over the last 30 days when balls are put into play. His hard contact allowed has also increased to 47.2%.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox are hitting a .326 wOBA as a projected lineup against righties and have also smacked 28.6% of line drives against lefties over the same period of 30 days.
On the other hand, Nick Pivetta will get the call for the Red Sox. He has had a 4,89 xFIP over the last 30 days but has still done some good things. He’s induced nearly 53% of ground balls and has allowed under 14% of line drives when balls are batted into play. Teams have hit just 29.2% of hard contact against him in that time frame.
The Royals have a .108 ISO and wOBA of .274 against righties as a team. The offense has less potential than Kansas City and has the worse pitcher, analytically, starting the game.
Take the Red Sox today on the runline.
Bet: Red Sox -1.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
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