Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (9/25)
It was another excellent day of sports betting yesterday. We finished 2-1 and earned more profit. That’s been a theme throughout the season.
We’ll try and replicate that again and look to profit for a third time over the weekend.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs will send out Adrian Sampson for today’s matchup against the Pirates. Sampson has earned 45.7% of ground balls over the last 30 days and has given up just 32.1% of fly balls when balls are hit into play. Lefties and righties have struggled to hit for power. Sampson held lefties to a .025 ISO and righties to a .093 ISO last month.
Meanwhile, the Pirates only get consistent hitting from Oneil Cruz, who has a .333 ISO and wOBA of .396. Pittsburgh’s lineup is currently hitting a .275 wOBA with 25.7% of strikeouts against righties.
On the other hand, Luis Ortiz will get the call for the Pirates. He’s a righty with 42 plate appearances under his belt in the last 30 days. Ortiz has struck out 23.8% of batters faced and has limited line drives to 11.5%.
Like Sampson, he’s limited ISO and wOBA against both sides of the plate and will take on a Cubs team with a .148 ISO and wOBA of .275 over the last 30 days against righties.
The Cubs have struck out 28% of the time against righties. While neither team has their aces on the mound, we should see many strikeouts, more ground balls, and fewer line drives and fly balls.
I’ll take the under.
Bet: Under 8 (-115 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
It’ll be Dylan Bundy on the mound for the Twins today. He’s holding a 6.58 xFIP with 11.8% of strikeouts over the last 30 days. Bundy has also given up more line drives than ground balls. The righty has also struggled more against righties, giving up a .459 wOBA and ISO of .327 over the last 3o days.
In the Angels order, he’ll have to face Mike Trout, who has a .258 ISO and wOBA of .356. He’ll also have to take on a very hot Taylor Ward. The Angels have some weapons in their lineup to hit a struggling pitcher like Bundy.
On the flip side, Jose Suarez will get the start for the Angels. Suarez is a lefty that will have to face at least seven righties in the Minnesota lineup. Suarez has allowed a .348 wOBA and ISO of .206 to righties over the last 30 days.
Carlos Correa, Gio Urshela, and Gary Sanchez are three hitters consistently hitting extra-base hits against lefties. Those righties are in the meat of the order for a reason.
With that said, I will take the Over in this matchup.
Bet: Over 8 (-110 at DraftKings)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers
The Cleveland Guardians are looking to lock up the AL Central. They’re going to win the division early this week. A couple more wins for the Guardians, and the division is over. Or a couple more losses for the White Sox, and the division will be over.
Aaron Civale will take the mound today against the Texas Rangers. Civale has limited walks and has a high ground ball rate of 57.1% over the last 30 days. He’ll face a Rangers lineup that has struck out 26.5% of the time against righties in the previous 30 days. This same projected lineup is hitting a .166 ISO and wOBA of .288.
While the Guardians haven’t been better, they’re facing Cole Ragans, a left-handed pitcher. He’s got a BABIP of .406 and has allowed 41.2% of line drives over the last 30 days. Cleveland is already hitting 26.4% of line drives and has struck out 18.3% of the time using their projected lineup against lefties.
Look for the Guardians to smack some line drives on their way to a win today.
Bet: Guardians (-135 at DraftKings)
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to a more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.