Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday, September 4 (2022)
It’s been an incredible week of profit. Last night, we went 3-0 and swept the board. I warned you! I know football was on, but you can’t leave baseball just yet. We’re earning a lot of money right now!
Let’s keep the momentum going with three more plays on today’s slate.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians are hitting a .098 ISO with a wOBA of .283 against righties in the last 30 days. The projected lineup doesn’t have a single player hitting a wOBA above .350. They’ll take on George Kirby, a rookie right-hander for the Mariners. He’s holding a 3.22 xFIP in that same 30-day time frame.
Kirby has also struck out 28.3% of batters in the last month while only walking 2.5%.
On the other hand, Cal Quantrill will take the mound for the Guardians. The right-hander has a 4.50 xFIP but has still been able to limit walks and line drives when balls are hit into play.
He’s also facing a Mariners lineup hitting a .149 ISO with a wOBA of .284. Seattle’s projected lineup has hit just 18.9% of line drives, and they have just a .241 BABIP.
Both starters should be able to keep this game tight throughout the game.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds
Chase Anderson will get the call for the Reds to start today’s game. He lasted 14 batters in his previous start, finishing with an xFIP of 5.76. He also walked the same amount of batters that he struck out.
Colorado certainly doesn’t have the best lineup against righties, but the projected lineup still has a .153 ISO with a wOBA of .305. If the Rockies can limit strikeouts, they’ll have some success offensively going up against Anderson.
On the flip side, the analysis is the same. We’ve got an average offense taking on a below-average pitcher. Jose Urena has a 5.35 xFIP in the last 30 days and will take the mound for the Rockies. He’s also got a high walk rate and a low strikeout rate.
Cincinnati has a .158 ISO and wOBA of .317 against righties but what stands out the most is the 23.3% of line drives hit against righties in the last 30 days.
I like both of these offenses to do some damage against bad pitching.
Bet: Over 9.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels will send out Tucker Davidson in the final game of their series against the Astros. Davidson has a 7,07 xFIP in the last 30 days and has walked 16.1% of batters faced in that time frame. He’s also only struck out 12.6% of batters in that time.
The Astros, on the other hand, rate hitting a .231 ISO with a wOBA of .350 against lefties in the last 30 days. They’ve only struck out 15.5% of the time as a lineup in the last month against lefties.
Houston should be able to do some damage today.
Jose Urquidy will also take the mound. Houston’s right-hander has a 5.52 xFIP in the last month and has struggled against both sides of the plate. He’s allowed a .238 ISO to lefties and an ISO of .208 to righties. The Angels have power as long as they can connect with the ball.
Urquidy isn’t a strikeout thrower, and therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Angels added some runs of their own as well. Let’s go with the over in this one.
Bet: Over 9.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
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