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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (4/18)

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Thanks to some rain yesterday, we’ve got 17 games on the schedule tonight. That includes two doubleheaders and a couple of day games we can enjoy.

I won’t be betting on any doubleheaders. I rarely do. But I still have a couple of best bets for tonight’s slate of games.

Let’s get after it.

Check out MLB Home Run Odds for all players in today’s games >>

Today’s Best MLB Bets

All wagers are 1 unit | Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals

The pitching matchup in tonight’s game isn’t exactly appealing.

Dean Kremer of the Orioles will take on Josiah Gray of Washington. Gray’s the more highly regarded pitcher. But he’s currently 0-3 with a 4.32 ERA. Gray also holds an xFIP of 5.04 to begin the year with just 18.1% of strikeouts. Righties have hit a .391 wOBA and ISO of .268 in 46 plate appearances.

Austin Hays and Jorge Mateo have destroyed righties to begin the year. They’re also righties themselves and should have a good day at the plate against Gray. Adley Rutschman will also bat from the left side but is hitting a .268 ISO and wOBA of .459 with 21.2% of walks against righties this season.

Meanwhile, Kremer has a 9.49 ERA and eight strikeouts this season. His xFIP is sitting at 6.73, and he’s been destroyed by lefties and righties to begin the year. But Washington’s lineup should help Kremer get back on track.

The Nationals’ projected lineup has hit a .093 ISO, a wOBA of .274 and over 50% of ground balls with just 17.3% of line drives against righties.

I’ve got Baltimore earning its 10th win of the season.

Bet: Orioles ML (-146)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies

If you’ve followed me over the last couple of years, you’d know I love to fade both pitchers on the mound tonight. But I’ll be backing one of them.

Let’s start with Jose Urena. Urena has a 9.90 ERA to begin the year for the Rockies. He also has a 7.33 xFIP and has walked 14.5% of batters while only striking out 12.7%.

Righties are hitting a .591 ISO, while lefties are smacking a .292 ISO. It’s been a disaster for Urena. He’ll pitch in Colorado against a Pirates lineup that has hit for power against righties. Pittsburgh’s projected lineup has an ISO of .195 with a wOBA of .324. Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen and Jason Delay have all hit a high ISO and wOBA against righties in the Pirates lineup.

Meanwhile, Vince Velasquez earned a win in his last start. But he has a career ERA near 5. His xFIP is still at 6.67 for the season, and he’s earned as many ground balls as line drives gave up.

Velasquez has done better against righties as a righty, but lefties are still hitting a .438 wOBA and ISO of .280 against him. Charlie Blackmon and Ryan McMahon might be the only two lefties in the lineup. So while Velasquez hasn’t been good this season, he matches up way better than Urena.

Take the Pirates on the road.

Bet: Pirates ML (-110)

Here are our other best bets for Tuesday:


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