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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (10/11)

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We were on our way to a 2-0 sweep with Monday’s two NLDS picks, but a late barrage by the Atlanta Braves offense and some late-game heroics by Austin Riley barely nudged the game over the projected eight-run total. Nevertheless, we walked out even on the day as we got +100 odds to back the Under in the Diamondbacks-Dodgers game that ended 4-2 and stayed under its projected eight-run total.

What is in store for Wednesday’s slate that has both NL and AL games on tap?

    Wednesday's Best MLB Bets

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Houston Astros (+108) vs. Minnesota Twins (-126) | O/U 8.5 (-102/-120) 

    An opponent rarely has a pitching advantage over the Houston Astros, but the Minnesota Twins do today and are rightful favorites because of it. Twins righty Joe Ryan ranks in the 88th percentile in strikeout rate and chase percentage and 92nd percentile in walk rate. In addition, his xERA of 3.53 is nearly a full run lower than his actual 4.51 ERA, which suggests he pitched better than the numbers give him credit for. Meanwhile, Jose Urquidy pitched to a 5.29 ERA this season and has an even worse 6.18 playoff ERA since 2017. And while Houston used Hunter Brown for an inning of relief yesterday, that means J.P. France is likely to take much of the bulk innings if Urquidy runs into trouble. That is a good sign for Minnesota, as France was lit up for an ERA north of 7.00 in his final seven regular season starts and allowed a .286 OBA after the All-Star Break.

    Minnesota used mostly starters (Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober) in relief in Game 3, which means their middle relievers, who ranked in the top seven in BABIP are well-rested for this matchup. Houston was an impressive 23-12 as road underdogs this season, but Minnesota won 61.1% of its games (44 of 72) as home favorites, and we expect it to force a Game 5.

    Pick: Twins Moneyline (-126)

    Los Angeles Dodgers (-144) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+122) | O/U 9.5 (-122/+100)

    The Diamondbacks took both games in Los Angeles by a combined score of 15-4 and now look for one more win over their division rivals to send them to their first NLCS since 2007. The Dodgers joined this year's Baltimore Orioles as two of three teams in the 118-year history of the MLB playoffs to win 100 games and lose both of their first two postseason games at home, as ESPN Stats & Info explained.

    On paper, the Diamondbacks are not a bad matchup for Dodgers righty Lance Lynn, who allowed 44 home runs in 183 2/3 innings this year, as Arizona's 166 home runs ranked 22nd in the regular season. However, the Diamondbacks mashed more home runs (four) than any team in the Wild Card round, and they ranked in the top 13 in slugging and wOBA and the top 10 in BABIP in home games this year.

    Even if the Diamondbacks do not hit the ball over the fence with regularity in Game 3, they should be highly successful on the basepaths. Arizona stole the second-most bases in the regular season and looks to take advantage of Dodgers catcher Will Smith behind the plate, who threw out just 21% (19 of 91) of base-stealers this season. The Diamondbacks stole four bases in Game 2 compared to just once caught stealing, and their wheels should be in motion again. 

    While Los Angeles had to deal with Arizona's elite 1-2 punch of Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen in the first two games, there is a significant drop-off to Brandon Pfaadt, who only recorded eight outs and allowed seven hits in Game 1 of the Wild Card series against the Milwaukee Brewers. Pfaadt was bailed out by a bullpen who threw 6 1/3 scoreless innings but do not bank on that again, as Diamondbacks relievers ranked 21st in xFIP since August 1.  

    We should see plenty of a taxed Dodgers bullpen again, who had to piece together 16 innings over the previous two games after their starters combined to throw just two innings. Thus, we expect runs to be scored, despite the Under cashing in four of L.A.’s last five games, and 49 of Arizona’s previous 86 (the Under has profited bettors +13.45 units in that span).

    Pick: Over 9.5 Runs (-122)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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