MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (4/19)
Inclement weather on Monday caused our first two doubleheaders of the season to be played on Tuesday. Which one of those doubleheaders impacts our plays for today?
Here are our MLB best bets for Wednesday.
YTD: 20-26-1 (-3.77 units)
Today’s Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+164) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-196) | O/U 10 (-118/-104)
When facing the St. Louis Cardinals, a pitcher’s success or failures are heavily predicated on navigating the heart of the Cardinals order, as reigning MVP Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are arguably the most feared hitting duo in the league. Goldschmidt dominated lefties last season, leading the league by a wide margin with a .411 batting average and 1.327 OPS against southpaws, and was the only player with a wRC+ of higher than 214 (his was 266) in such splits. The Cardinals slugger has had great success against Madison Bumgarner, against whom he slashes .342/.422/.618, with 11 of his 26 hits in 76 at-bats going for extra bases. In addition, Arenado has a .767 career OPS against Bumgarner, which will make getting through the heart of the order difficult.
The current Cardinals are slashing .301/.381/.545 in 183 combined at-bats against Bumgarner, which is a large enough sample size to back their team total confidently. St. Louis has scored the fewest runs of any NL Central team and has the worst run differential, but we are still banking on an offensive breakout today.
Pick: Cardinals Team Total Over 5.5 (-115)
Texas Rangers (+100) vs. Kansas City Royals (-118) | O/U 9 (-110/-110)
In one of the fishier MLB lines available today, the Royals are favorites over the Rangers despite them sending southpaw Martin Perez to the mound, while their own starter has allowed 13 earned runs in his last 11 innings. However, that is the faith oddsmakers have in Brady Singer to bounce back against a Rangers team that is 9-2 when allowing four or fewer runs this season.
Perez has seen his strikeout total lessen in three consecutive starts after a seven-strikeout performance in his first start. However, Perez’s last two starts have come against teams (the Cubs and Astros) that rank in the top 12 in strikeout rate, with Houston specifically striking out the least of any team against left-handed pitching. Perez’s strikeout total should be on the rise today when facing a Royals lineup that is the worst in baseball with a 32% strikeout rate and .250 on-base percentage against southpaws.
Conversely, Singer had allowed one or fewer earned runs in six of his previous seven home starts before getting roughed up by Atlanta (eight earned runs in five innings) in his last start.
The Under is 40-18-7 in the last 65 meetings between these teams and is 20-8-2 in the previous 30 in Kansas City. Thus, we expect another low-scoring battle between two promising pitchers.
Pick: Rangers-Royals Under 9 (-110)
Cleveland Guardians (-142) vs. Detroit Tigers (+120) | O/U 8.5 (-104/-118)
One of Cleveland’s most significant advantages over its opponents is in the bullpen, especially after a year where its relievers ranked second in xFIP and fourth in WAR. However, that advantage is somewhat mitigated coming off a doubleheader yesterday, where many of its best arms were called to action. In addition, though Detroit played 18 innings yesterday, it will likely have its entire bullpen available today after being off each of the two days prior. And per Inside Edge, Tigers relievers have allowed a .273 slugging percentage versus the bottom of the batting order since last season, which is tied for second-best in the majors.
Guardians starter, Cal Quantrill, may not be able to give the team the length it needs after beginning the year with a 5.74 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 5.81 xFIP, and 5.55 SIERA. Quantrill has been relied upon as an innings eater, as he threw at least five innings in 29 of 32 starts last year. However, he is 11-13 in 53 career road appearances (31 starts) compared to 20-4 in 63 appearances (47 starts) at home. In addition, his ERA is 0.8 runs higher away from home, and his 1.400 WHIP at Comerica Park is his second-highest of all visiting ballparks in the AL Central.
Quantrill has allowed an OBA of .306 and OBP of .343 in 72 combined at-bats to opposing Tigers hitters, so we expect a bounce-back from an otherwise underperforming Tigers lineup.
Though Cleveland has won 35 of its previous 53 games in Detroit, we are still backing the Tigers and starting pitcher Spencer Turnbull, who is coming off by far his best outing of the season (one earned run allowed in five innings in a win at Toronto). Take advantage of the plus-money odds and back the team with the second-longest winning streak in the majors.
Pick: Tigers ML (+120)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.