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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (4/26)

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Several teams are going for sweeps in series finales in the afternoon window today, and we have two of those teams covered in our daily best bets column.

Here are our MLB best bets for Wednesday.

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Chicago White Sox (+144) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-172) | O/U 9.5 (-118/-104)

Only seven current Blue Jays have ever faced White Sox starter Michael Kopech, but despite six of those seven having three or fewer at-bats, six have also recorded at least one hit against him. Kopech has struggled with a 6.97 ERA this year and an even worse 9.83 xERA. His woes are directly tied to hard-hit balls, as he ranks in the bottom second percentile or worse in hard-hit percentage, barrels, and xSLG.

Toronto’s lineup is relentless, starting with a top-of-the-lineup with three players (Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Matt Chapman) with OPSs of .865 or higher entering Tuesday. Meanwhile, Blue Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi has allowed just two earned runs in his last 12 innings, with a 12:3 K:BB ratio despite facing the high-powered Rays at home and the Yankees in the Bronx in that span.

Toronto has won all four of Kikuchi’s starts (three of them by at least three runs), so we are comfortable laying the -1.5 runs against a White Sox team that has lost seven straight road games and each of their last five in Toronto.

Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (+105)

New York Yankees (+108) vs. Minnesota Twins (-126) | O/U 8 (-114/-106)

Yankees righty Domingo German’s best start of the season was a home performance on April 15 against the Twins when he allowed one earned run in 6 1/3 innings while walking none and striking out 11. It will be interesting to see if Minnesota takes a more aggressive approach at the plate to not fall behind in the count, especially because German has allowed a .337 OBA on the first pitch of at-bats. However, this is still a Twins lineup with the seventh-highest strikeout rate entering Tuesday (25%) and is even higher (25.7%) in home games. 

While the Twins rank eighth in BABIP at home this year, that is mitigated by German’s strikeout potential in a rematch. In addition, Minnesota has struggled in the power department, ranking 22nd in ISO and 18th in hard-hit contact at home. And with Gerrit Cole on the mound tomorrow, manager Aaron Boone will likely have that in mind as he uses his best relievers, given how much of an innings eater Cole has been.

Minnesota’s Kenta Maeda has averaged just 63.3 pitches per start and was removed after two innings in his previous start after taking a line drive off his ankle. However, Maeda has also had his turn in the rotation skipped earlier this year, so we are only banking on his success once we see him fully healthy, even when facing a Yankees lineup that has scored three or fewer runs in eight of nine games.

Pick: Yankees ML (+108)

San Diego Padres (-106) vs. Chicago Cubs (-110) | O/U 8 (-112/-108)

Cubs lefty Drew Smyly is having a career year in many respects, and while regression is expected, he has given us no reason to jump off his bandwagon just yet.

Smyly’s 1.95 xERA is second-lowest among all qualified pitchers (only Jacob deGrom’s 1.90 xERA is lower), and there has not even been much traffic on the basepaths in his starts, as his 69.3% LOB% is third-lowest among all 15 qualified starting pitchers with xERAs lower than 3.00. The southpaw also ranks in the 93rd percentile or better in xSLG, xBA, hard-hit percentage, and average exit velocity. In addition, he has held current Padres to a combined .198/.284/.387 slash line in 96 combined at-bats, with excellent success against Nelson Cruz and Xander Bogaerts, who he has held to eight hits in 42 combined at-bats and struck out 16 times.  

We are not as confident backing the Cubs ML as San Diego has won its last four of its previous games at Wrigley Field. However, the Padres rank 18th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, and BABIP against left-handed pitching this year, which has us confident that Smyly and company will keep their runs at a premium.

Pick: Padres Team Total Under 4.5 runs (-140)

Check out the rest of Wednesday’s best bets:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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