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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (5/24)

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Per the Elias Sports Bureau, the Toronto Blue Jays pulled off one of the most shocking defeats in baseball history yesterday. What is in store on today’s jampacked schedule?

Here are our MLB best bets for Wednesday.

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

San Francisco Giants (+146) vs. Minnesota Twins (-174)| O/U 7.5 (-104/-118)

Is San Francisco Giants righty Anthony DeSclafani experiencing an early-season slide? DeSclafani has thrown just 10 1/3 combined innings in his previous two starts and has pitched to a 5.26 ERA in his last three. DeSclafani has four or fewer strikeouts in four of his nine starts (he ranks in the 25th percentile for strikeout rate), and the fact that he typically pitches to contact means he will not have a significant advantage over a Minnesota Twins lineup that ranks in the top half of the league in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year, but whose 25.2% strikeout rate was the third-highest in the league entering Tuesday. In addition, DeSclafani has been removed after 77 and 84 pitches in his last two starts, which suggests manager Gabe Kapler has less confidence in him as the game progresses.

Minnesota’s Joe Ryan has been lights out this season, with the eighth-best ERA (2.25) of any qualified starting pitcher in the league. And of those top eight pitchers, he has the second-best WHIP (0.89). However, he faces an underrated Giants lineup that has been much better with the recent additions of Brandon Crawford and Mike Yastrzemski off the IL. 

Despite Ryan’s gaudy ERA, the Over has cashed in each of his last seven home starts and is 3-0-1 in DeSclafani’s last four starts with three days of rest. Thus, the total is a tad too low for this series finale.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-104)

Miami Marlins (-180) vs. Colorado Rockies (+152) | O/U 11 (-102/-120)

Will this be the start that Sandy Alcantara turns it around? Alcantara is making one of the worst defenses of the NL Cy Young Award in recent memory, as he is 0-5 with a 6.17 ERA in his last seven starts. In addition, his 6.46 ERA in four road starts is more than two full runs higher than his 4.05 ERA in five starts at home. However, his K/9 rate is still 8.5 compared to the 8.1 he ended his Cy Young campaign with. And while many bettors will expect Alcantara to turn in a similarly poor outing at hitter-friendly Coors Field, they should be reminded that the Rockies rank 29th in the league in wRC+ in home games. And while Alcanta is on pace for his worst GB/FB ratio of the last four seasons, Colorado ranks 24th in HR/FB percentage in home games.

Colorado counters with Karl Kauffmann, who is being given another start after allowing five runs in 4 1/3 innings in his Major League debut against the Texas Rangers. Kauffmann did not inspire much confidence coming into that start, as he pitched to a 7.78 ERA in eight Triple-A starts before his call-up.

Miami is a respectable 13-10 as road favorites since 2022, and we expect Alcantara to break his winless streak and lead his team to victory over one of the worst teams in the National League.

Pick: Marlins ML (-180)

Oakland Athletics (+235) vs. Seattle Mariners (-290) | O/U 8 (-122/+100)

The Oakland Athletics’ 10-40 start is tied for the fourth-worst start through 50 games in baseball history. The A’s are tracking to win just 40 games, three fewer games than the Detroit Tigers won in 2003 (their 43 wins were the fewest in a 162-game season). Oakland has lost 26 of its 40 games by at least three runs, including 11 of 18 such losses against divisional opponents. Oakland’s Ken Waldichuk has allowed an astronomically high .423 wOBA, and he ranks in the bottom fifth of the league in xSLG, barrels, and walk rate. Conversely, Seattle Mariners rookie Bryce Miller has allowed a microscopic .143 wOBA because of elite control with a walk rate in the 99th percentile. 

When Seattle wins, it wins big, as six of its previous seven wins have been by 4+ runs. And as the home team, Seattle has covered the -1.5 run line in 10 of 24 games, so we do not mind paying the high juice to still lay -1.5 runs in this lopsided matchup.

Pick: Mariners RL (-137)

Check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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