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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (6/28)

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Wednesdays around Major League Baseball are commonly a “getaway day”, but just two games in the afternoon window gives bettors more time to scour the matchups and make informed decisions.

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Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Washington Nationals (+215) vs. Seattle Mariners (-260)| O/U 8 (-120/-102)

Seattle Mariners righty Logan Gilbert has won just one of six home starts compared to four of his nine road starts. In addition, his numbers in day starts leave something to be desired, as his ERA is 5.47 during the day, but lowers to 3.50 at night, and his OBA goes from .186 at night to .294 in starts during the day.

The Washington Nationals are 13 games under .500 against left-handed starting pitchers but have fared much better against righties comparatively, winning 23 of 50 games. And the Seattle Mariners rank 17th in wRC+ and 27th in wOBA at home against left-handed pitchers this season. That has us confident that Patrick Corbin will pitch well enough to let his team hang around, and we expect the Nationals to continue their profitable ways on the road. Washington is 27-12 (.692) against the run line on the road this season (28.4% ROI), which is second-best in MLB.

Pick: Nationals RL (+100)

Cincinnati Reds (+150) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-178) | O/U 9 (-122/+100)

Normally we like to fade pitchers that have a large sample size of at-bats against the opposing lineups, but we are opposing Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Luke Weaver despite only one current Baltimore Orioles hitter (Adam Frazier) ever facing him before.

Weaver is one of two pitchers in the Reds rotation with a negative WAR rating, a WHIP of 1.59 or higher, and an ERA north of 6.80. He has not earned a victory in eight consecutive starts and has allowed 4+ runs in half of those. And while the Orioles’ regular lineup is typical loaded with lefties or switch hitters, the fact that Weaver has allowed a .329 OBA to right-handed batters is troubling. In addition, Weaver has induced nearly three times fewer ground-ball outs versus fly-ball outs in June, which means Baltimore should hang some crooked numbers today.

The Over has cashed in each of Weaver’s last four starts, and is 5-2 in the previous seven meetings in Baltimore between these teams. Thus, we are backing the Orioles to exceed their team total.

Pick: Orioles team total Over 5 (-111)

New York Yankees (-162) vs. Oakland Athletics (+136) | O/U 8 (-105/-115)

It is crazy to think that the New York Yankees look like an average to below average baseball team when they are missing Aaron Judge, given that they should have been able to form a better team around him with a $285M payroll. However, the Yankees are 8-11 since Judge injured his toe on June 3. In that span, the Yankees rank dead-last in the majors in wRC+ (67), BABIP (.227), and wOBA (.266) and have averaged just three runs per game. The offensive limitations are also a concern with Domingo German on the mound, since Katie Sharp explained on Twitter how German has made history of the wrong kind in his last two starts.

Oakland counters with southpaw JP Sears, the former Yankee, who has been lights out with a 2.88 ERA over his last seven starts. And do not expect Sears to issue many free passes, as he has not allowed a walk in 56 plate appearances against right-handed batters.

New York is 5-14 in its last 19 games in Oakland, and considering it has lost each of German's last four road starts against teams with a losing record, backing the porous Oakland Athletics on the moneyline suddenly does not look so bad.

Pick: Athletics ML (+136)

Check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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