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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (7/19)

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It was a crazy day in Major League Baseball yesterday, as Sarah Langs noted on Twitter.

Is more offense on the horizon in today’s 15-game slate?

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Chicago White Sox (+188) vs. New York Mets (-225) | O/U 9 (-104/-118)

The New York Mets are just 5-8 overall in Justin Verlander’s 13 starts, which is a big reason why they have been so disappointing relative to their huge payroll and preseason expectations. However, this is a home start for Verlander, which usually means good things regarding his chances for a successful outing.

Verlander allowed just two hits in his last home start against the Los Angeles Dodgers but was undone by a season-high six walks. The good news is he faces the least patient team in the Majors today, as the Chicago White Sox walk at a 6.5 percent clip. Verlander has won just twice in seven home starts this year, and the Mets have covered the runline just three times in the five wins when he has toed the rubber. But Verlander has deserved a much better fate while pitching to a 2.57 ERA and .203 OBA at Citi Field, and six of those starts were against teams over .500, so Verlander will receive a nice respite facing a White Sox lineup that ranks 27th or worse in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS against right-handed pitching this year. 

Chicago has covered the runline in just 44 percent of its non-league games (11-14 record), and we are still laying the -1.5 runs with New York despite it covering the runline in just eight of 33 games as home favorites this year.

Pick: Mets -1.5 (-106)

Detroit Tigers (-148) vs. Kansas City Royals (+126) | O/U 8.5 (-112/-108)

The Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals have met eight times this year and combined for five or fewer runs in three meetings. One was in Eduardo Rodriguez’s only game against the Royals this year when he allowed just two earned runs and tied for his second-best strikeout total of the season (nine).

Rodriguez has been a player highly rumored to be dealt at the trade deadline and will be highly coveted given his elite walk percentage (6.0% walk rate is on pace to be the best of his career) and ability to limit hard contact (86th percentile). He has always been a better second-half pitcher, with a career ERA of 3.78 compared to a 4.27 first-half ERA. In addition, his .667 July winning percentage is tied for the best of any individual month of his career. 

Rodriguez is opposed by Kansas City’s Ryan Yarbrough, who has pitched to a 4.24 ERA in four starts since being stretched out as a starter. However, that number lowers to 1.78 after removing one blowup start against the Baltimore Orioles. Yarbrough also does not allow hard contact, ranking in the 81st percentile in barrels and 95th percentile or better in hard-hit contact and average exit velocity.

Detroit has been a profitable team to back in terms of team total Unders, cashing it in 14 of its last 20 games entering Tuesday (+7.75 units, 35% ROI). Meanwhile, Kansas City’s team total Under has cashed in 55 of its previous 96 games, so we expect another low-scoring affair tonight.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-108)

Minnesota Twins (+140) vs. Seattle Mariners (-166) | O/U 7.5 (-105/-115)

Seattle Mariners righty Luis Castillo routinely gets the benefit of the doubt from oddsmakers, but he has hardly pitched like the staff’s ace for quite some time. Since June 9, Luis Castillo’s ERA is a respectable 3.67. Still, he ranks dead-last out of 74 qualified starting pitchers in FIP (5.73) in that span, suggesting his ERA is due for regression even if his xFIP is more encouraging (4.42). 

Castillo’s recent issues have stemmed mostly from keeping the ball in the yard. He has an encouraging .220 BABIP since June 9 but has allowed a 20.0% HR/FB rate. That number is even more concerning since four of his seven starts in that span have been at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. He has allowed seven home runs in his previous 23 2/3 home innings (2+ home runs in three of his last four home starts), despite facing three teams that rank 23rd or worse in home runs in that span. 

The Minnesota Twins will provide another stern test, ranking ninth or better in OPS and wRC+ over the last two weeks. That is impressive, considering Byron Buxton is hitting just .114 with a 41 percent strikeout rate in that span, while four other players are slugging .538 or better to make up the slack. The Over has cashed in each of Minnesota’s last six games, and we expect its offense to do its part in scoring runs tonight.

Pick: Twins Team Total Over 3 (-122)

Check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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