MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (7/26)
A 3-0 sweep from our last MLB Best Bets column on Monday has us brimming with confidence heading into today’s mid-week trio of picks.
Today's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cincinnati Reds (+128) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-152) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110)
The Milwaukee Brewers rank in the top eight of MLB in runs prevented and in the bottom seven of the league in runs scored. Those trends have manifested in their head-to-head meetings with the Cincinnati Reds this year, as they and their division rivals have combined for seven or fewer runs in eight of their 12 head-to-head meetings this season. However, we believe the two NL Central frontrunners are in for a slugfest today.
Reds starter Ben Lively has pitched to a disappointing 4.86 FIP, 4.09 SIERA, and his 4.53 xERA is worse than his 3.88 actual ERA. In addition, he ranks in the bottom third of the league in whiff percentage, xBA, xSLG, and chase rate. Meanwhile, Brewers righty Freddy Peralta is on pace for his worst strikeout percentage and walk rate over the last six seasons, while his 4.08 xERA is on pace for the second-worst in that span. And while Peralta is inducing the best GB/FB rate (0.67) of his career, he is also allowing home runs at the highest rate (4.1%), which means he is not fooling many batters when they elevate the baseball.
Cincinnati’s team total Over is 23-10 in its last 33 road games (+11.40 units, 29% ROI) and the Over has cashed in 50% of Milwaukee’s games when it is favored compared to 36% when it is an underdog.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
New York Mets (+138) vs. New York Yankees (-164) | O/U 8.5 (-115/-105)
The last time we saw Carlos Rodon, he was blowing kisses at New York Yankees fans who were jeering him after a poor road start against the Los Angeles Angels dropped his record to 0-3 in three starts. However, Rodon is in line for a huge bounce back against one of the worst-hitting teams against southpaws.
The Mets rank 23rd in wRC+, 22nd in wOBA, and 24th in OPS against southpaws while striking out at a 21.9% clip. Despite those poor statistics, we expect most of the handle to back underdogs, especially given this historical nugget from Katie Sharp.
However, it is hard to ignore that four of the six Mets with at least 100 plate appearances against southpaws this season have a strikeout rate of 21% or higher, three have ISOs of .170 or lower, and two have negative wRAAs. The Mets have won back-to-back games against the same opponent in just one of their previous 12 road series, and we do not expect them to do it against the Yankees tonight.
Pick: Yankees ML (-164)
Texas Rangers (+158) vs. Houston Astros (-188) | O/U 8.5 (+100/-122)
Houston Astros southpaw Framber Valdez enters this start with the second-best odds in the American League at DraftKings (+370) to win the Cy Young Award, and he looks to add to his resume against a Texas Rangers lineup that he has held to a combined .222/.276/.325 slash line in his career. Much of Valdez’s success has come against three Rangers regulars (Marcus Semien, Jonah Heim, Mitch Garver), who are a combined 8-for-45 with 11 strikeouts against him.
Valdez is one of five starting pitchers (min. 30 IP) with a K-BB% greater than 20% and a ground ball rate above 50%. He should continue his excellent campaign against a Rangers lineup without Corey Seager and with a banged-up Adolis Garcia, who is playing in just his second game since getting hit by a pitch on his hand over the weekend. Houston has the best winning percentage of any AL team against its division (.667), and we expect Valdez to do his part in ensuring the Astros win another critical game over the first-place Rangers.
Pick: Rangers team total Under 3.5 (-128)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.