MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (8/23)
Tuesday was a big day for MLB underdogs, as ‘dogs went 8-7 with three teams (Cleveland Guardians, Washington Nationals, and Miami Marlins) cashing tickets of +153 or better. Will the ‘dogs keep barking on today’s 15-game slate?
Today's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cincinnati Reds (+150) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-178) Game 1 | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115)
The Cincinnati Reds remain in the thick of the NL Wild Card race (they start the day 0.5 games out of the third wild card spot), despite going 6-12 in August thus far, the second-worst record of all NL teams. Cincinnati has not won more than two straight games since July 23, in large part because it ranks 25th in and 26th in batting average while striking out at the league’s highest rate (27.9% in that span).
Many will argue that the Los Angeles Angels are overvalued in this matchup, given that Shohei Ohtani may be on a stricter pitch count than usual after his last start was skipped for fatigue. However, we expect the best version of Ohtani today, as he has not allowed an earned run in three consecutive starts after allowing just seven total hits in his previous 19 innings.
Meanwhile, since July 20, Andrew Abbott has a better fWAR than pitchers like Zack Wheeler and Zac Gallen. Regression may soon be looming, as Abbott ranks in the bottom third of the league in hard-hit contact and the bottom tenth in average exit velocity. However, Los Angeles is just 12-19 against left-handed starting pitchers, one of five AL teams at least seven games under .500 against southpaws, so Abbott’s regression should be on hold for at least one more start.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
New York Mets (+164) vs. Atlanta Braves (-196) | O/U 10 (+100/-122)
The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves are not averse to playing high-scoring games against each other, as they have cashed the Over in five of the previous eight meetings, with five of the games totaling 12+ runs. The Mets have been the best offensive team in the NL for nearly two weeks, averaging 6.5 runs per game over their last ten games face Atlanta Braves righty Charlie Morton, whose 4.79 xERA is the worst among all Braves starters (min. nine starts) and whose 4.24 xFIP is better than only Bryce Elder’s.
Mets southpaw Jose Quintana has been tough on three of the Braves’ best hitters throughout his career, holding Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson, and Orlando Arcia to a combined 7-for-56 (.125) with just two extra-base hits. But Quintana is still 2-4 with a 6.49 ERA in seven career starts against Atlanta, and this Braves lineup is on a historic pace in many categories, including being on track to set the MLB record for home runs, so take those prior encounters with a grain of salt. The depth of the Braves lineup will prevail in this matchup, as players like Kevin Pillar and Marcell Ozuna, who are a combined 14-for-36 and each have an OPS of .918 or higher against Quintana, should provide pop at the bottom of the order.
The Over has cashed in 57.8% of Atlanta’s home games (37-27-1) and is 18-17-1 when the Mets are road underdogs. That is by far the most profitable split for the Over cashing in Mets games, as it has cashed in just 43.1% of their games overall.
Pick: Over 10 (+100)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-210) vs. Cleveland Guardians (+176) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110)
Los Angeles Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw has thrown fewer than 127 innings each of the last three seasons, so he should be well rested for this stretch run, with 105 1/3 innings pitched so far this season.
Kershaw’s numbers at age 35 are not far off from his Cy Young campaign in 2011, as he has allowed a .212 OBA and .264 OBP this year compared to a .207 OBA and .256 OBP 12 years ago. While he is an eye-popping 5-0 with a 1.26 ERA in his previous seven starts, many will discredit those numbers as he has made just two starts since June 27. But he has allowed a .171 OBA (the best of any month) in two August starts and a 0.80 WHIP against the Colorado Rockies and Milwaukee Brewers. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians entered Tuesday ranked dead-last in the AL in nearly every offensive category against southpaws, including wRC+ (74), batting average (.226), slugging (.348), and wOBA (.278).
Many will be hesitant to lay the steep -218 moneyline odds with the Dodgers after Cleveland exploded for eight runs in yesterday’s series opener. Still, the Guardians had averaged just 2.5 runs per game in the six games prior, so we expect Kershaw and the Dodgers bullpen, which entered yesterday with the third-best ERA in the league in August (2.26), to limit Cleveland offensively.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-118)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.