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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (9/13)

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Wednesday is a popular getaway day around Major League Baseball, and we are taking advantage of that with all three of today’s plays focusing on afternoon games involving teams in division or wild-card races, as we look to maximize our profits early.

      Wednesday's Best MLB Bets

      (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

      Tampa Bay Rays (-130) vs. Minnesota Twins (+110) | O/U 9 (-112/-108) 

      The Minnesota Twins remain in cruise control for an AL Central title, as their competition with every team in the division at least eight games under .500 is historically bad. As a result, Minnesota seems not to be playing with much urgency lately, as it has not won three consecutive games since August 12-15. 

      The Twins are 4-0 in Dallas Keuchel’s last four starts but have provided him with nearly six runs per game of support. Tampa Bay Rays righty Taj Bradley may be winless in his previous seven starts while pitching to a 6.55 ERA in that span, but the team has won each of his last two starts, and their 22-9 record against AL Central teams is its best against any division this year.

      Bradley has pitched to a 3.97 ERA this month, with most of the damage coming via the long ball, as he has allowed three home runs in 11 1/3 innings. And while the Twins rank in the top five of the league in home runs, Bradley’s ERA, OBA, and GO/AO ratio are all better on the road than at home this season, and his 24.3% fly-ball rate suggests regression should be coming from in the home runs allowed department.

      Minnesota has played barely over .500 baseball for its last 131 games (66-65) and has cost bettors money (-19.50 units) in that span. Thus, we prefer to back the more profitable Rays team that has profited bettors +9.15 units this season.

      Pick: Rays Moneyline (-130)

      Chicago Cubs (-168) vs. Colorado Rockies (+142) | O/U 11.5 (-122/+100)

      Chicago Cubs righty Jameson Taillon has transformed from a starting pitcher who was an afterthought to make the postseason roster to one the team can rely on down the stretch. Before the All-Star Break, Taillon pitched to a 6.15 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a .275 OBA. Since the All-Star Break, those numbers have improved to a 4.23 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and .255 OBA. Taillon received a hard-luck no-decision in his last start after allowing just one hit in six scoreless innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he has pitched to a 2.66 ERA in his previous seven starts against teams with lower than a 20% chance to make the playoffs currently.

      Thus, even though this game is in Coors Field, we expect Taillon to limit a Colorado Rockies team that ranks dead last in wRC+ in home games this season. Meanwhile, the Cubs lineup should provide him with run support against Ty Blach, who has allowed nine earned runs on 17 hits over his last 11 innings to two teams that rank in the league’s bottom half in scoring. Blach ranks in the second percentile or worse in xBA, xERA, whiff percentage, and strikeout percentage and is in trouble against a Cubs lineup that ranks in the top 10 in wRC+, OPS, and BABIP in the second half of the season.

      Pick: Cubs -1.5 (-122)

      Cleveland Guardians (+108) vs. San Francisco Giants (-126) | O/U 8.5 (-108/-112)

      San Francisco Giants lefty Kyle Harrison broke into the big leagues in a big way, becoming the first southpaw in the modern era to record a 40% strikeout rate or better through his first two MLB starts, as OptaSTATS explained.

      However, while Harrison has recorded five strikeouts apiece in all four of his big league starts, we are slightly overvaluing the young prospect because of his electric debut at Oracle Park, where he whiffed 11 batters. In his two starts since then, one of those five strikeout performances came against a Rockies team with the third-highest strikeout rate in the majors.

      We expect Harrison not to have his best swing-and-miss stuff when facing a Cleveland Guardians team with the lowest strikeout rate (18.8%) of any team in the majors. Harrison has allowed 10 runs in 10 2/3 innings this month, and the more he establishes he is prone to big innings, the more manager Gabe Kapler will rely on a bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and limit Harrison’s ceiling for strikeouts. However, Kapler may not choose to use his best arms since they have already pitched in this series, and he knows a high-scoring four-game set at Coors Field looms over the weekend.

      Thus, we have faith in Guardians lefty Logan Allen, who has three quality starts in his last seven appearances and faces a Giants lineup that is third-worst in the NL in wRC+ and 27th overall in OPS against southpaws this season.

      Pick: Guardians Moneyline (+108)

      Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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      Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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