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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (9/20)

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Several Major League Baseball teams have 10 or fewer games left on their schedules entering the day, which means we are getting down to crunch time for any last playoff runs. Bettors should be sure to get their wagers in early today, as nine of the 15 games on today’s MLB slate are in the afternoon.

    Wednesday’s Best MLB Bets

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Minnesota Twins (-108) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-108) | O/U 9 (-114/-106) 

    The Cincinnati Reds have lost just one of their last five series and remain in the thick of the NL wild card race. However, they are playing with fire, as they have gotten just two wins from starting pitchers in September. Though one of those wins came from today’s starter, Hunter Greene, he has looked shaky in the five starts since returning from injury, and we expect the Minnesota Twins to capitalize.

    Greene has walked three-plus batters in his five starts since August 20 (after two months on the IL), and that could plague him against a Twins lineup that ranks second in BB/K ratio in road games against right-handed pitching since August 1. 

    Minnesota is 3-1 in Bailey Ober’s last four starts, and his xwOBAcon and hard-hit contact rate have improved each of the previous three seasons. In addition, Ober’s barrel percentage is his best in his young three-year career, and his xBA is a combined 40 points better than his actual OBA on his two primary pitches (fastball and changeup), which he throws 72.4% of the time.

    The Reds are rightful favorites, considering they have the second-best record of any NL team in interleague play (27-16). Still, we expect Minnesota to put each even closer to clinching the AL Central (its magic number is three) and steal the rubber match of this series.

    Pick: Twins Moneyline (-108)

    San Francisco Giants (-104) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-112) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)

    The San Francisco Giants have a brutal upcoming schedule with nine games in nine days against their three biggest NL West rivals, so we expect manager Gabe Kapler to ask a lot of ace Logan Webb in this pivotal matchup, especially since some openers and bullpen days will be needed down the stretch.

    Webb has recorded 18-plus outs in four straight starts and eight of 10, and he is the only pitcher in the league to throw 200-plus innings this year. He has held current Diamondbacks hitters to a .217/.275/.346 slash line in 115 combined at-bats and Arizona ranks in the bottom half of the league in BABIP, wOBA, and OPS in home games against righties since August 1. Webb’s 2.62 career ERA against the Diamondbacks is his best against any NL West rival, and he has thrown seven innings in all three starts against them this year.

    Opposing him is Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly, who has been plagued by nine walks in his last 10 2/3 innings. However, Kelly has one of the best home ERAs (2.81) of any starting pitcher in the league, and we expect him to get right against a Giants offense that has scored just 18 runs in its last seven non-Coors Field road games.

    Pick: Under 7.5 (-110)

    Detroit Tigers (+205) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-250) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110)

    Los Angeles Dodgers rookie Bobby Miller has done a fabulous job stabilizing the rotation amid several starters’ injuries. Miller has won four of his last seven starts, with those four wins all coming against teams currently occupying playoff spots (Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewers). However, we are somewhat nervous that Miller has pitched to a 5.29 ERA in his last three starts against teams under .500. And the Tigers have performed much better offensively of late, ranking in the top 11 in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS in road games against right-handed pitching since August 1, while also posting the seventh-best BABIP in that span.

    Tigers righty Reese Olson has made three consecutive quality starts in September while pitching to a 1.37 ERA. But in his four starts before that against teams over .500, Olson pitched to a 6.96 ERA, and he still ranks in the bottom fourth of the league in barrels, hard-hit contact, and xERA despite his recent hot stretch. 

    The Over has cashed in 83 of L.A.’s last 143 games (+24.85 units), and its team total Over is 39-28 in its previous 67 home games (+6.99 units), so we expect the Dodgers to snap Olson’s quality start streak tonight.

    Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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