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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (9/27)

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We are 5-1 with our last six MLB best bets, including cashing the wagers on two totals from Monday’s card that propelled us to a second straight profitable day.

With today’s trio of picks, we focus on two more totals and back the moneyline odds of a team trying to knock a division rival out of playoff contention.

    Wednesday's Best MLB Bets

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Cincinnati Reds (+108) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-126) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110) 

    Cleveland Guardians ace Shane Bieber is making his second start since July 9. And while he allowed four earned runs over five innings in his last outing against the Baltimore Orioles, this low total suggests oddsmakers believe he is due to end the season on a high note.

    Bieber has held Cincinnati Reds hitters to a combined .197/.252/.385 slash line in 131 combined plate appearances in his career. He has used those outstanding numbers to compile a career 3-0 record in five starts against Cincinnati, the only team he is unbeaten against in more than three starts. Bieber should find success again versus a Reds lineup that ranks 18th in wRC+, 23rd in BABIP and 26th in hard-hit contact over the last 14 days. 

    The Reds send southpaw Andrew Abbott to the mound. He has not recorded more than 13 outs in three consecutive starts. However, we expect a bounce-back against a Guardians lineup that ranks dead-last in wOBA and OPS against left-handed pitchers in home games this season. 

    Both teams are profitable Under teams, with Cincinnati cashing the Under in 43 of its last 68 games (+16.80 units) and the Under being 88-68 in Cleveland’s previous 156 (+18.15 units). Thus, we are following these trends again and expecting the Under to cash in this series finale.

    Pick: Under 7.5 Total Runs (-118)

    Houston Astros (-120) vs. Seattle Mariners (+102) | O/U 7.5 (-122/+100)

    Framber Valdez has been an innings-eater for the Houston Astros of late, recording 21 or more outs in seven of his last 10 starts. And while he has recorded double-digit strikeouts in two of his previous three appearances, both starts were at home against the two worst teams in the American League (the Kansas City Royals and Oakland Athletics). Thus, the backdrop behind this road start against a Seattle Mariners team they are fighting for a playoff spot against completely changes the narrative.

    Valdez has an 8.4 K/9 rate in road starts compared to a 9.4 K/9 rate at Minute Maid Park this season. He has topped five strikeouts in just one of his last seven road starts, so we expect him to have a similar ceiling, even when facing a Seattle Mariners team with the second-highest strikeout rate (25.4%) in home games against southpaws this season. The Mariners tagged Valdez for six runs on 10 hits over five innings on Aug. 19, and we would expect manager Dusty Baker to have a quicker hook with Valdez in a game of this magnitude if he gets into similar trouble.  

    Meanwhile, a start of this importance is a lot to put on Seattle Mariners rookie Bryce Miller in just his 25th MLB start. Miller has allowed four hits in 12 1/3 scoreless innings over two starts against the Astros this season, but Seattle is 0-4 in his last four appearances, with the opposition totaling 27 runs in that span.

    The Over is 29-17 in Houston’s last 46 games (+11.25 units) and has cashed in 24 of Seattle’s last 40 (+8.90 units).

    Pick: Over 7.5 Total Runs (-122)

    San Diego Padres (-104) vs. San Francisco Giants (-112) | O/U 8.5 (-115/-105)

    The San Francisco Giants are 8-16 in September and have gotten just five wins from their starting pitchers in that span. However, two of those wins have come from ace Logan Webb, and two others came from Sean Manaea, who has adapted beautifully from primarily a bulk reliever role this year to be a dependable starter down the stretch. 

    Manaea’s teams had been 0-8 in an eight-start road stretch, but he has led the Giants to consecutive road wins against the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers, allowing just three earned runs in 12 1/3 combined innings. Manaea is pitching more to contact, with three or fewer strikeouts in five of his previous seven starts. However, he is inducing more ground balls (1.36 GO/AO ratio in September is his highest of any month thus far) and faces a San Diego Padres team that ranks just 15th in BABIP in road games against southpaws.  

    Much of San Francisco’s struggles have come on the road, as it is 6-2 at home and 2-14 on the road in September. Thus, we expect the Giants to knock their rivals out of playoff contention and earn a win against Padres youngster Matt Waldron, who has pitched to a 5.23 ERA in two road starts this season.

    Pick: Giants Moneyline (-112)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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