MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (9/6)
For many teams around Major League Baseball, the narrative has changed from “there is a lot of baseball left†to “we need to play well with the limited games left.†With division and wild-card races in full effect, today’s loaded 15-game slate will greatly impact the standings.
Today's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Milwaukee Brewers (-180) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+152) | O/U 9 (-110/-110)
Milwaukee Brewers righty Freddy Peralta earned NL Pitcher of the Month honors for August after winning all five starts, pitching to a 2.10 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and recording 46 strikeouts. Peralta’s five-start winning streak was halted on September 1, but to no fault of his own, as he limited the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies offense to two hits and one earned run over six innings while striking out 10-plus batters for the third time in the last five starts.
The Brewers are massive favorites over a Pittsburgh Pirates team that is 6-4 in their last 10 games (one game behind the best record of any NL team in that span). However, they still rank 22nd in BABIP (.283) and 24th in slugging (.393) over the last 14 days, so they should struggle to compete with a pitcher like Peralta, who has the following accolades.
The only two series the Brewers have lost in the second half of the season are to the two best teams in the NL, the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers. In addition, they are one of six teams at least 11 games over .500 against divisional opponents. So after splitting the first two games of this three-game series, we expect them to dominate the finale, not only to improve to 13-4 in their last 17 games overall but to improve to 23-19, covering the run line against NL Central rivals.
Pick: Brewers Run line (-122)
Colorado Rockies (+168) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-200) | O/U 9.5 (-110/-110)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have reshuffled the back end of their rotation over the last couple of weeks to generate some consistency behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Zach Davies has shown some glimpses of hope as a consistent third starter, allowing just two earned runs over his last 11 innings and recording six strikeouts in three of his previous five starts.
The Colorado Rockies rank 28th or worse in wRC+, OPS, BB/K, and wOBA against right-handed pitchers in road games this year. The Rockies have been held to four or fewer runs in 11 of their last 12 road games, while Davies’ 4.90 xERA compared to his actual 6.45 ERA suggests positive regression is looming.
Davies ranks in the top-third of the league in barrels and ground-ball rate, and it is encouraging that he induced a 31% CSW% against the powerful Baltimore Orioles lineup in his last start. Colorado has cashed the team total Over in just four of its last 12 road games (-3.85 units), and we expect that trend to continue today.
Pick: Rockies Team Total Under 3.5 (+116)
Houston Astros (-102) vs. Texas Rangers (-116) | O/U 8.5 (-114/-106)
Get your popcorn ready, as not only are the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers in a three-way dog fight in the AL West and the AL Wild Card race, but now we are treated to a starting pitching matchup of two future Hall of Famers that also have been teammates for two separate stints earlier in their careers.
Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer will surely have many backing the Under. Still, we like the contrarian nature of this wager, especially since the Over has cashed in five of the last six meetings between these teams, beating the projected total by an average of 9.5 runs in that span.
Scherzer had an injury scare in his last start, leaving after 88 pitches with forearm tightness. Scherzer admitted that the tightness led to his location being off, and if he is impacted the same way today, a Houston Astros lineup that has averaged an MLB-best 8.6 runs per game over the last 10 games should take full advantage.
Along with Houston’s league-leading .344 batting average and 1.017 OPS since August 26, its bullpen ranks just outside the bottom 10 in xFIP (4.68), which is an issue when backing up Verlander, who has recorded just 15 outs in two of his last four starts. In addition, Verlander’s hard-hit percentage is on pace to be above 40 percent for just the second time since 2015, while Texas’ 36.7 percent hard contact rate is second in MLB.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-114)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.