MLB Betting Systems Odds & Picks: Tuesday (9/10)
We’re inching closer to the MLB postseason. With less than a month of baseball in the regular season, every game counts just a little more for the contending teams.
That said, I’ve added multiple plays from the BettingPros betting systems for tonight’s matchups.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Betting System Plays
Here are our top plays of the day from the popular MLB betting systems at BettingPros.
MLB Home Runs Over/Under
- +697.83 units over last year
If you’ve followed the homerunns system throughout the season, you’d be up 496.73 units with a 29% ROI. The volatility with this system has been wild all season. Therefore, if you follow a system like this throughout the year, you need to be able to stomach the bad times and not get too crazy during the good times.
This system looks at home run hitters and follows this system input:
- Cost+300 to +1000
- Last 5 Games: Over in 1 to 5
- Last 10 Games: Over in 2 to 10
- Last 15 Games: Over in 3 to 15
- Last 20 Games: Over in 4 to 20
- Months of the Year: July, August, September, October
Six sluggers fit the criteria tonight.
I’m selecting Michael Toglia to hit a home run per the system. He’s +600 odds but has hit a .238 ISO and wOBA of .376 against his last 75 righties as a left-handed hitter. Tonight, he’ll face Keider Montero, who has allowed 39.5% of fly balls and has struck out just 14.8% of lefties over the last 30 days.
- Michael Toglia Over .5 Home Runs (+600)
MLB Strikeouts Over/Under
- +70.17 units over last year
The ZT u/Ks 1 system has earned a 12% ROI this season, including a profit of 60.87 units. It’s also hit 63.7% of the time despite there being 509 wagers.
Here are the criteria for this system:
- Last 5 Games: Over in 0 to 1
- Last 10 Games: Over in 0 to 3
- Last 15 Games: Over in 0 to 5
- Last 20 Games: Over in 0 to 10
This system just wants to fade pitchers who aren’t earning strikeouts at a high rate. I’m eying Ben Lively to go Under 4.5 Ks tonight for the Guardians.
He’s a righty facing a terrible White Sox team. But that terrible White Sox team has still struck out only 21.7% of the time. They’ve got six batters with a strikeout rate below 19% against righties over the last 30 days.
On the other hand, Lively has earned just 13.9% of strikeouts over the last 30 days. He’s also allowed a .181 ISO and wOBA of .365. I’ll fade him, even against the White Sox.
- Ben Lively Under 4.5 Ks (-115)
MLB Hits Under Plus Odds
- +230.59 units over last year
You’ll also want to check out the “MLB Hits Under Plus Odds DD†system on BettingPros. This system has added a 5.2% ROI on 2,885 wagers. It’s also earned a profit of 149.38 units and has won nearly 46% of the time.
You can see the system inputs below:
- This Season Over Percentage: Less than 40%
- Last 5 Games: Over in 0 to 2
- Last 10 Games: Over in 0 to 4
- Last 15 Games: Over in 0 to 6
- Last 20 Games: Over in 0 to 8
This system targets players who have struggled at the plate over the last few weeks and then takes their under. Alec Burleson is a good one.
He’s +190 to go Under .5 hits but has a .056 ISO and wOBA of .306 against his last 83 righties. The left-hander is in line to face Rhett Lowder of the Reds, who has held his last 21 lefties to a .000 ISO and wOBA of .272.
- Alec Burleson Under .5 Hits (+190)