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MLB Futures: 2024 Cy Young Award Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Our BettingPros catalog has churned out several MLB Futures articles thus far, such as the best bets to win the World Series, our favorite season wins totals, and who is likely to make or miss the playoffs. We follow up with our second in a series of futures articles related to player props, with this one centered around who we think will win the Cy Young Award.

Last year, New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole got over the hump after two previous second-place finishes in the Cy Young voting to win his first AL Cy Young Award. And San Diego Padres southpaw Blake Snell took home the NL Cy Young Award, making him just the seventh pitcher all-time to win the award in both leagues (Snell was the 2018 AL Cy Young Award winner with the Tampa Bay Rays).

Now Cole has too short of odds (+500 at DraftKings) to win the Cy Young in consecutive years, while Snell’s odds are off the board at most sportsbooks as he remains an unsigned free agent. Thus, we look to build our preseason Cy Young Award futures portfolio with those that present great value, just as we did when we accurately predicted Sandy Alcantara’s Cy Young campaign in 2022.

Here are our best two bets for both the NL and AL Cy Young Award.

Check out all of the consensus odds for 2024 MLB Cy Young Award >>

    2024 MLB Best Bets to win the Cy Young Award

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Logan Webb to win the NL Cy Young (+950) 

    San Francisco Giants ace Logan Webb went 26-12 in 2021 and 2022 before a subpar 11-13 campaign last season. However, Webb remained an innings eater despite the sub-.500 record, throwing an MLB-best 216 innings and leading the league in walks per nine innings (1.3) and strikeouts per win (6.26). Even if the Giants struggle again in the NL West this season, Cy Young voters have established that wins and losses are not their top priority, as Webb still finished second in the voting to Snell last season.

    In a day and age where launch angle and exit velocity are all the rage, Webb is the perfect foil to that, as he had an MLB-best 62% ground ball rate, the second time in three seasons that he has finished north of 60% in that metric. Thus, it would not be shocking to learn that Webb killed a lot of rallies last season by inducing a league-best 30 double plays. And Webb’s arsenal is not just about inducing ground balls and weak contact, as he was finished tied for second among all pitchers last season with strikeouts looking (64), an example of just how foolish his stuff can make hitters look.

    As long as Webb dons a Giants uniform, he will benefit from one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks at Oracle Park. And if he can lead a revamped rotation to ultimately help clinch San Francisco’s second playoff berth since 2016, that will go a long way in earning him future Cy Young consideration.

    Freddy Peralta to win NL Cy Young (+3000) 

    There are two other pitchers (Jesus Luzardo and Eduardo Rodriguez) that have the same +3000 odds as Freddy Peralta to win the NL Cy Young, but none of them have the same upside as the Milwaukee Brewers ace.

    Peralta has made just one All-Star appearance in his brief six-year career, but he will no longer be overshadowed by righty Corbin Burnes, as the former Brewers ace was dealt to the Baltimore Orioles. Peralta emphatically earned the confidence of the coaching staff enough to announce early he will be the team’s Opening Day starter, and he will look to improve upon his 3.83 ERA over 580 2/3 innings pitched in his career in Milwaukee.

    Last year, Peralta totaled career-highs in starts (30) and innings pitched (165 2/3), and he finished with a strikeout rate over 30% (30.9%) for the fourth time in six seasons. His 33.6% whiff rate last season was the fifth-highest among all pitchers with a minimum of 750 swings (and his 11.6 K/9 were also the best in franchise history), and StatsCentre explained how Peralta’s strikeout arsenal ranks among Milwaukee pitchers all-time.

    Among all starting pitchers with a minimum of 50 starts since 2020, his K/9 rate ranks third, and he is in the top 11 in xwOBA, xFIP, and WHIP. Peralta’s strikeout numbers alone are enough to turn heads, and should be the metric that keeps him relevant in the Cy Young conversation this season compared to the rest of the sport’s elite.

    Luis Castillo to win AL Cy Young Award (+1300) 

    Luis Castillo anchors a Seattle Mariners pitching staff that finished last season tied for the fewest runs allowed in the American League. And so far, he has seemingly enjoyed his time in the American League much more than his National League days with the Cincinnati Reds, as he finished with a sub-.500 record in four of the five full seasons he pitched in Cincinnati, including leading the league with 16 losses in 2021. However, Castillo is a combined 18-11 in his short stint with the Mariners with a 3.29 ERA.

    Castillo finished fifth in the Cy Young voting last year after finishing fifth in ERA, sixth in WHIP, and first in games started (33). He ranks eighth among all active pitchers in K/9 rate and is in the top 20 in WAR. And if wins and losses are something that may sway Cy Young voters this season, the Mariners are one of three AL teams to win 88-plus games each of the last three seasons (the Astros and Blue Jays are the other two).

    Castillo has the sixth-best odds to win the AL Cy Young Award, but we feel that is even too low for a player of his caliber.

    Carlos Rodon (+5000) 

    Will a New York Yankees pitcher take home the Cy Young Award for a second consecutive season? If it does happen, it is most likely to be because of another spectacular year from Gerrit Cole. But we wanted to round out our futures portfolio with at least one long-shot pick, and few pitchers with 50:1 or longer odds have the pedigree and ability to turn in a Cy Young season as Carlos Rodon does.

    The Yankees made Rodon one of their most prized offseason acquisitions last year, as he had come off back-to-back seasons with a top-six Cy Young finish in San Francisco, and led the league in FIP (2.25) and K/9 (12.0). Back injuries limited him to an uninspiring 14 starts in his first year in the Bronx, where he finished with a 3-8 record and 6.85 ERA. However, his ERA was 2.88 or better each of the prior two seasons, and if the injury was responsible for just a one-off poor season, one can do a whole lot worse than 50:1 odds to back Rodon to win some hardware. Perhaps a bounceback season would make Rodon more suitable for the NFL’s version of the Comeback Player of the Year, but we are banking on some East Coast bias to earn him Cy Young recognition.

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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