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MLB Futures: 2024 MLB Win Totals Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Several of Major League Baseball’s futures markets can be wagered on deep into the season, like who will win each division or who will miss or make the playoffs. However, several sportsbooks take their season win totals odds down after Opening Day, so getting those wagers in early is important.

After an offseason of spending more than a billion dollars, the Los Angeles Dodgers own MLB’s top projected win total (O/U 103.5). They are one of two teams with a projected win total of over 100, as the Atlanta Braves’ total opened at 101.5. For perspective, no team last year began the season with a higher projected win total than 96.5, so oddsmakers believe that the Dodgers and Braves are in a class of their own as the cream of the crop in the National League.

What teams do we project to exceed or stay under their projected win totals? Here are our best MLB season win totals bets for the 2024 season.

Check out all of the consensus odds for 2024 MLB Win Totals >>

    2024 MLB Season Win Totals Best Bets

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    New York Yankees O/U 93.5 Wins (-105/-115) 

    The New York Yankees finished last season with 82 wins, the franchise’s lowest in a 162-game season since 1992 (the Yankees won 76 games that year).

    New York seemingly wasted the first Cy Young year of Gerrit Cole’s career, as the ace led the league in win percentage (.789, 15-4), ERA (2.63), innings (209.0), WHIP (0.981) and H/9 (6.8). He has finished in the top five of the Cy Young voting five times in the previous six seasons and has led all pitchers in innings pitched since 2018. We once again expect him to anchor a strong starting rotation.

    FanGraphs projects the Yankees to have the third-best pitching staff in the American League regarding WAR and fWAR. This means a much better season is likely in store for their prized acquisition from last year, Carlos Rodon. The southpaw battled injuries all season and finished just 3-8 with a 6.85 ERA in 14 starts. Still, he is just one season removed from leading the league in FIP (2.25) and K/9 (12.0).

    New York’s offense crumbled last year when slugger Aaron Judge went on the IL, as the 2022 MVP was limited to just 106 games after suffering a freak toe injury while crashing into a wall at Dodger Stadium. The two years prior, Judge played 148 and 157 games, and we expect a much healthier season this year. Judge now has arguably the best protection in the lineup he has had in his entire career after the Yankees acquired Juan Soto, a career .284 hitter who has led the league in OBP twice.

    The AL East should once again be one of the most competitive divisions in baseball. However, the Baltimore Orioles are due for regression after a 101-win season that came out of nowhere, and the Tampa Bay Rays should continue to play like the team that crumbled after a hot 27-6 start last season.

    The Yankees have won 94-plus games three times in the last five full seasons since 2018. Coming off their most disappointing season in the last 30 years, we would expect their front office to be busy at the trade deadline to bolster the roster when they are in contention late in the year.

    Bet: Yankees Over 93.5 Wins (-105)

    New York Mets O/U 82.5 Wins (+100/-120) 

    The New York Mets got nothing out of the highest payroll in MLB history last season, winning 75 games and failing to make the postseason. The team’s philosophy completely changed course at the trade deadline, unloading both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. While they may have gotten foundational pieces to build around for the future in exchange, that will not help the team win 83-plus games this year.

    Mets owner Steve Cohen’s message to Mets fans suggested that there is only faint optimism for this season and that his and the rest of the front office’s eyes are looking toward 2025 and beyond. The Mets’ bullpen is bolstered by the return of closer Edwin Diaz, who suffered a season-ending injury in the World Baseball Classic last season. However, for as optimistic as that news is, the Mets received glooming news on ace Kodai Senga.

    After spending big on Scherzer and Verlander, the Mets rounded out their rotation with bargain deals and “home run swings” on Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Adrian Houser. That should not exude much confidence from fans entering the season. In a division with the Braves and a Philadelphia Phillies team that has made an NLCS and World Series appearance in the last two seasons, finding 83 or more wins will be hard to come by, especially with the unknown of what the Mets will get from Senga all season.

    Bet: Mets Under 82.5 Wins (-120)

    Los Angeles Angels O/U 72.5 Wins (-105/-115) 

    The Los Angeles Angels have won 73 or fewer games in three of the last four full seasons, and that was with the best all-around player in the game, Shohei Ohtani, on their roster. The Angels have not topped 80 wins since 2015 and have not made the playoffs since 2014. Another slow start could expedite the process of a complete rebuild, even though All-Star Mike Trout has expressed his desire to stay with the team.

    Speaking of Trout, he has had trouble staying healthy of late. After playing in at least 114 games every season from 2012-19, he has played over 82 games just once in the last four years. He also finished last season with a .263 batting average, the first time ending the season with worse than a .281 average since 2011.

    The strength of the Angels could be their bullpen after signing five relievers in the offseason, including Robert Stephenson and Matt Moore. However, the starting rotation ranked 19th in ERA and 21st in xFIP last season and does not have any pitcher projected to win over 10 games or pitch to an ERA lower than 4.09 this season, per FanGraphs. Los Angeles currently has a payroll nearing $175M, so it would be unrealistic to expect it to add any of the key remaining free agents before the season starts or to be active at the trade deadline.

    The Angels play in a loaded AL West with the defending World Series champions (Texas Rangers), a playoff stalwart (Houston Astros) and a team that has won 88-plus games in three consecutive seasons (Seattle Mariners). If not for the lowly Oakland Athletics, we might be looking at this Angels team as one of the worst in the American League entering this season. We also do not sense positive vibes from this clubhouse over the grind of a 162-game season after being unable to keep Ohtani.

    Bet: Angels Under 72.5 wins (-115)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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