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MLB Futures: 2024 MVP Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Our BettingPros catalog has churned out several MLB Futures articles thus far, such as the best bets to win the World Series, our favorite season wins totals, and who is likely to make or miss the playoffs. We follow up with our first in a series of futures articles related to player props, with this one centered around who we think will win MVP.

Last year, Ronald Acuna Jr. won the NL MVP after slashing .337/.416/.596 for a loaded Atlanta Braves offense, and Shohei Ohtani took home the AL MVP after batting .304 and clubbing 44 home runs, while also winning 10 games and pitching to a 3.14 ERA. These two players are a perfect snapshot to illustrate that the MVP is not annually awarded to the best player on one of the best teams, as Ohtani’s Los Angeles Angels won just 73 games and finished in fourth in the AL West last year.

Here are our best two bets for both the NL and AL MVP Award.

Check out all of the consensus odds for 2024 MLB MVP >>

    2024 MLB Best Bets to win MVP

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Mookie Betts to win NL MVP (+650) 

    The Los Angeles Dodgers added Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamomoto to an already loaded roster, but those prized free agent acquisitions have many overlooking the stalwarts that were already on the team, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Based on lineups used in spring training, the Dodgers are likely to use Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman in that order at the top of the lineup. And while hitting leadoff may suppress some of Betts’ RBI numbers, his impact at the top of the lineup will not be ignored by MVP voters. Codify provided the following example of just how hot Betts can get when he is locked in at the plate.

    Betts already has one MVP in his trophy case, and has finished second in the voting two of the last four seasons. His elite defense (that we expect him to seamlessly carry over into a full year at second base) gives him more ammunition in MVP consideration, as he has nabbed six Gold Gloves in the last eight seasons, to go along with six Silver Sluggers in that span.

    Betts is coming off a season where he played 152 games, his highest since 2017. He turned that availability into a career-high 39 home runs and was six away from his career-high in RBIs, plating 107 runs. His positional versatility gives him an added bullet point for his “value” to a team, and he has also led the league in WAR three times in his career, including last year when he posted a WAR of 8.3. He is a great candidate to lead the league in runs scored for a fourth time batting in front of Ohtani and Freeman, and if the Dodgers win 100-plus games, Betts will likely have a lot to do with that.

    Austin Riley to win NL MVP (+2500) 

    No player has won back-to-back NL MVP Awards since Albert Pujols did so with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2008 and 2009, so we are not keen on Ronald Acuna Jr.’s chances to repeat. However, like the Dodgers, the Braves are projected to win more than 100 games, and if they play anywhere close to their preseason projections, we want to have some stake in their roster to take home some individual hardware.

    Riley is a two-time Silver Slugger who has been as consistent as any power hitter in the National League of late, hitting 30 or more home runs and driving in at least 90 runs in each of the last three seasons. In that span, he leads all third basemen in batting average (.286), home runs (108), RBI (297), WAR (18.6), and OPS (.878). He has finished in the top seven of the MVP voting in each of the previous seasons, though never finished higher than sixth, but he is an iron man of sorts having played in at least 159 games each of the last three seasons. If he stays healthy again, his +2500 odds to win MVP are a bargain hitting in the meat of a lineup that led all of baseball in runs scored, wRC+, and ISO. In addition, Riley was a big reason Atlanta’s team slugging percentage of .501 was 46 points higher than the second-best team, which is a bigger gap than the second-best and 16th-best team in terms of slugging.

    Yordan Alvarez to win AL MVP (+800) 

    The Houston Astros have been the AL’s most dominant team for much of the last decade, so it seems blasphemous to think that just one of their players have won an MVP (Jose Altuve in 2017) in that span.

    The New York Yankees are the only AL team with more projected wins than the Astros this season, and Alvarez is likely to be a big part of the team’s success. He is one year removed from a top-three MVP finish in 2022, a year in which he slashed .306/.406/.613 and hit 37 home runs with 97 RBIs. That was the year Aaron Judge broke the AL single-season home run record, so Alvarez would have likely earned much more serious MVP consideration if not for his competitor’s historic campaign.

    Alvarez has seen his games played diminish each of the last three seasons, but it will be interesting to see if the Astros use him more as a full-time DH this season to increase his odds of playing in more than the 114 games he appeared in last season. Despite being less available each year, he has still hit 31-plus home runs and driven in 97 runs in each of the last three years, and if the Astros win the AL West for the seventh straight time in a full season (excluding the 2020 shortened season), Alvarez’s name should be squarely in the MVP mix.

    Lastly, if you think you have an edge against Alvarez by throwing a southpaw at him, think again.

    Luis Robert Jr. (+6000) 

    With our first three MVP picks, we have covered our bases with three of the best teams in baseball (Dodgers, Braves, Astros), so we felt compelled to add a long-shot on a poor team to our portfolio. The Chicago White Sox have an O/U projection of 63.5 wins, as only the Oakland Athletics are believed to be worse entering the season. However, just one team in the AL Central won more than 78 games last season, so if the White Sox are somewhat competitive, Robert Jr. is a great value down the odds board playing in one of the most high-profile baseball cities in the country.

    Robert’s batting average and on-base percentage have dropped each of the last three seasons, but the White Sox slugger exploded for a career-high 38 home runs last year after not hitting more than 13 in any of his first three years in the big leagues. That breakout year allowed him to ed the year in the top seven of the AL in slugging, OPS, home runs, total bases, and extra-base hits, and he finished 12th in the MVP voting as a result.

    Alex Rodriguez set a precedent in 2003 winning MVP on a last-place 71-win team, after finishing with 47 home runs and 118 RBIs that year. Robert likely will not have the protection in the lineup to face as much hittable pitching, but he already started to gain popularity after participating in the Home Run Derby last season. He is the most worthy of a flier from any player with +6000 or longer odds, especially given the rare category he is in, as Rangers broadcaster Jared Sandler pointed out.

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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