MLB Futures: Best Bets to Win the AL Pennant (2021)

After making weekly wagers for the entire Major League Baseball season, we have more than enough intel to determine who we like to represent the American League in the World Series. As opposed to making an AL pennant futures bet earlier in the season, now is an optimal time to lock in your wager now that the trade deadline has come and gone. For the last week, we have gotten a sense of what each potential playoff team’s roster will look like in October and how they would match up against their opposition.

In this column, we will provide reasons why we are eliminating specific teams from contention before ending with our selection for who will be the American League champions and why they will be the last team standing.

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Why not the Red Sox (+500)/Yankees (+900)/Blue Jays (+850)/Athletics (+1000)?

These four teams all have something in common: that they are the likeliest to be fighting it out for the American League’s two wild card spots. When locking in a futures wager in August, I want to be relatively confident that my team selected will be playing in the ALDS. All four of these teams have their flaws, and all will be watching the playoffs from home if they do not play solid baseball the next two months.

Boston is due to get Chris Sale back soon after he makes his final minor league rehab starts. However, is he enough to steady a rotation that has seen starting pitchers like Martin Perez, Nick Pivetta, and Garrett Richards pitch poorly for the last two months? The Red Sox have not won any of their last four series and may be in serious trouble if J.D. Martinez stays on the COVID-19 IL for an extended period.

Speaking of the COVID-19 IL, the Yankees are dealing with the loss of two of their best starting pitchers (Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery) and starting catcher Gary Sanchez. New York has been red hot since the trade deadline, but will their pitching hold up enough over the next two weeks until Cole and Montgomery come back, let alone the next two months?

The Toronto Blue Jays have caught fire since being able to go home and play in Canada. But, will their success carry over to the road, where they are just three games over .500? They are a young and promising team but lack playoff experience from most of their significant contributors.

The Oakland Athletics have the second-best run differential of these four teams, but what do they do that is “elite?” Their expected win-loss record is eight games worse than Houston’s, which indicates that they are less likely to win the AL West than their three-game deficit suggests.

Why not the Rays (+500) or White Sox (+250)?

The Chicago White Sox are a near-lock to win the AL Central, while a recent hot streak combined with Boston’s struggles has given the Tampa Bay Rays some breathing room in the AL East. However, while both teams are trending toward avoiding the one-game wild card playoff and securing a spot in the ALDS, both have flaws.

The White Sox have arguably the best rotation in the American League, topped by two Cy Young contenders in Lance Lynn and Carlos Rodon. Dallas Keuchel may be the worst of their five starters but should unquestionably earn some postseason starts given his prior success pitching in October. In addition, Chicago made many outstanding moves at the trade deadline, most notably bolstering the back end of their bullpen with the acquisitions of Craig Kimbrel and Liam Hendricks. And, the White Sox are due to get back the services of Yasmani Grandal and Luis Robert, which will make their lineup as deep and complete as it has been all year.

The problem with the White Sox is that they have not been pushed or tested all season long and will likely not play any meaningful games for the rest of the regular season with the division more or less wrapped up. Their recent struggles may have as much to do with injuries as it does with complacency. Will they be able to “flip a switch” and match the intensity level of their opponents in October?

The Tampa Bay Rays are as steady as they come. Aside from the acquisition of Nelson Cruz, they do not have any big-name bats in their lineup. Nevertheless, it is a joy to watch them routinely beat teams with much higher payrolls, proving that playing as a team and doing all of the little things can get you far in this game.

The only thing keeping me from betting the Rays is that ace Tyler Glasnow underwent Tommy John surgery and will be out until 2023. Last year, their “big three” arms in Glasnow, Charlie Morton and Blake Snell, were a big part of their World Series run. While the Rays have arguably the best and deepest bullpen in baseball, one needs strong starting pitching to win in October. I am not convinced that Shane McClanahan, Ryan Yarbrough, Michael Wacha, and company are ready to give the team the necessary innings in high leverage situations to be successful.

Best Bet to win the AL Pennant: Houston Astros (+225)

It almost seems like a wager on the Houston Astros to win the American League pennant is by default, but they have been one of the best teams in the league all season long. First, Houston’s 69-41 X-W/L is three games better than anyone else in the league. They have dominated good competition, as evidence by their impressive 43-28 record against teams over .500. They are the most experienced bunch with deep playoff runs (at least an ALCS appearance) in the last four seasons. Lastly, the Astros have gotten to this point without the contributions of several key players like Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel, who have each spent extended periods on the IL.

Houston’s +147 run differential (as of 8/7) is the best in the American League and second in the majors only to the Los Angeles Dodgers. They lead the majors in runs scored, are second in OPS, tied for first in batting average, and strike out the fewest of any team in baseball. For those conspiracy theorists that say the Astros still have an unfair advantage at Minute Maid Park, Houston is hitting and slugging better on the road than at home since the beginning of last season.

Pitching-wise, the Astros have a solid 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation with Zack Greinke (10-3, 3.69) and Lance McCullers Jr. (9-2, 3.02). In addition, Framber Valdez has a better ERA on the road than at home, which is a good sign considering he would pitch later in a series in which they will likely have homefield advantage. And with the addition of Kendall Graveman to secure the ninth inning, the bullpen looks much deeper.

A wager on Houston is a chalky pick, but one will pay a premium for a selection on a team that is more likely to avoid the one-game playoff than many other contenders in the American League. Trust their firepower and their experience, especially with manager Dusty Baker to guide them through October.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.