MLB Futures: Best Bets to Win the NL Pennant (2021)

It has looked like the National League is much deeper all season long than the American League. The two best teams in baseball reside in the best division, and just 1.5 games separate the top three teams in the NL East. It will be a thrilling end to the regular season, as the NL’s best teams compete for division titles while trying to avoid the dreaded one-game playoff.

After making weekly wagers for the entire Major League Baseball season, we have more than enough intel to determine who we like to represent the National League in the World Series. As opposed to making NL pennant futures bet earlier in the season, now is an optimal time to lock in your wager now that the trade deadline has come and gone. For the last few weeks, we have gotten a sense of what each potential playoff team’s roster will look like in October and how they would match up against their opposition.

In this column, we will provide reasons why we are eliminating specific teams from contention before ending with our selection for who will be the National League champions and why they will be the last team standing.

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Avoid all National League East teams

The Phillies, Braves, and Mets have all taken turns feasting on poor teams like the Nationals and inflating their record after the trade deadline. However, all of these teams have been mediocre all season. As a result, the division as a whole has been ridiculed as a laughing stock and not one capable of representing the National League in the World Series.

One team (the Atlanta Braves) has a positive run differential, but even Atlanta’s +71 differential is worse than four other National League teams. Give Atlanta’s front office credit for still “going for it” even after Ronald Acuna Jr.’s season-ending injury. They added Jorge Soler and Adam Duvall to help with lineup versatility, and ace Charlie Morton is a solid top-of-the-rotation starter who is coming on strong with a 2.47 ERA in his last ten starts. They will not be intimidated by teams like the Dodgers if they face them in the postseason, as Atlanta had a 3-1 lead over them in last year’s NLCS before losing three straight. However, the team has been too inconsistent for too long to predict a World Series run. Though they did well to remain competitive at the trade deadline, the injuries to Acuna Jr. and Mike Soroka, among others, will be too difficult to overcome.

Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler is a bonafide Cy Young candidate. Still, Aaron Nola is having an uncharacteristically poor year and cannot be counted on to support Wheeler in the rotation. Entering today, Philadelphia’s rotation has combined for a 1.38 ERA and has held opposing batters to a .117 average since August 6th. However, that is a small sample size, and their bullpen has too many issues to sustain any postseason success.

If the Mets had a healthy Jacob deGrom, they could be taken more seriously. However, deGrom had his latest throwing session pushed back two weeks, and he will not likely have enough time to build up his arm strength to be as effective as he was earlier in the season. New York’s schedule is murderous over the next two weeks with ten more games against the Dodgers and Giants. After that, it lightens up with 14 consecutive games against the Nationals and Marlins, but New York has never had success historically against Miami. If the Mets are not careful, they can find themselves buried in the NL East standings by the end of August.

Can the Brewers Make a Run with their Pitching?

The Milwaukee Brewers have the most feared trio (healthy trio, at least), with Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta having career years. The three pitchers all rank in the top five in the majors in ERA, the top seven in OBA, the top four in WHIP, and the top 11 in SO/9. The Tampa Bay Rays used a three-headed monster of starting pitchers and a lights-out bullpen to a pennant and were within two wins of a World Series championship last year. So why can’t Milwaukee follow a similar script?

The biggest concern with Milwaukee entering October is the workload of their pitchers. Woodruff, Burnes, and Peralta have all surpassed their previous career highs in innings pitched. Since the Brewers have a significant lead in the NL Central, they have been using a six-man rotation for quite some time to keep everyone’s workload manageable. But the fact that Milwaukee’s coaching staff and front office is even thinking about that is problematic, and they will likely need to rely on a bullpen that ranks in the bottom half of the league in WAR.

Will it be the Dodgers or Giants?

With all due respect to the San Diego Padres, they seem destined to play in the Wild Card game or may even be caught by the Reds or an NL East team. They have been the third-best team in their division all year, and there is no reason to think they can suddenly put a run together in October and outlast the Dodgers and Giants.

All season long, people have been waiting for the Giants to “come back down to Earth,” as their Major League-best record through 127 games seemed improbable at the beginning of the season. However, they have a four-game lead on the Dodgers with 35 games to play as of this writing. Thus, it is more likely that they will win the NL West and avoid the dreaded one-game playoff. That is a considerable advantage and one that has us more confident backing them than a team that will likely have to win that game to extend their season.

On paper, Los Angeles has by far the best rotation. They struck fear in the rest of baseball when they acquired Max Scherzer and Trea Turner at the trade deadline. However, outside of Scherzer and Walker Buehler, the rest of the rotation remains a mystery at this point. Trevor Bauer may not pitch again this year, and Clayton Kershaw has not pitched since July 3rd because of soreness in his throwing elbow. In addition, closer Kenley Jansen has had his struggles securing the ninth inning, and a once-thought-of unstoppable team suddenly has its question marks.

The Giants can pitch with anyone in the league, as evidenced by their second-ranked 3.32 ERA. While the Dodgers are merely .500 against teams with winning records, San Francisco has the second-best record in the NL against teams over .500. In addition, they are baseball’s best home team, which matters since they are on track to have homefield advantage throughout the NL playoffs. The Giants also have a veteran roster with guys like Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, and Brandon Belt, who have all won World Series before. Add in the newly acquired and versatile World Series champion Kris Bryant, and their lineup is much deeper than it was on Opening Day. San Francisco’s bullpen ranks in the top seven in the majors in ERA and FIP and is the best bullpen in baseball in terms of BABIP. 

While our American League pick to win the pennant was chalky, this pick is anything but. It feels chalky given that we are betting on the team with the best record in the majors, but it is about time we stop overlooking this team from the Bay Area.

Best Bet to Win the NL Pennant: San Francisco Giants (+450)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.