MLB Futures: Best Bets to Win the World Series (2021)
There has arguably never been a more interesting time to place MLB futures bets than January 2021. Not only are we basing decisions on the strange and abbreviated 2020 season, but the MLB offseason is slugging along at an excruciatingly slow pace. The Los Angeles Dodgers are back as the favorites, do not have any glaring weaknesses, and could very well get even better over the next few weeks. The New York Yankees are healthy after dealing with injuries in 2020 and have a potent lineup, but questions remain about their pitching. The San Diego Padres and Toronto Blue Jays boast some of the best young talent in baseball and have been aggressive in attempting to improve their rosters.
The New York Mets have a new owner looking to spend money and aggressively improve the team. The Atlanta Braves are loaded with young talent in their lineup and their starting rotation. The Chicago White Sox added depth to an impressive roster. And the Minnesota Twins, Oakland Athletics, Houston Astros, Tampa Bays Rays, and Washington Nationals are all recent playoff teams who are looming and potentially a move or two away from jumping into the top tier of teams.
Let’s take a look at the odds and the best bets to win the 2021 World Series.
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Odds to Win the 2021 World Series
The Favorites
As mentioned above and in last week’s Best Bet to Win the NL Pennant, the Dodgers are the returning champions and remain the favorites. The New York Yankees have the second-best odds, but questions about their pitching remain. The Padres are very intriguing, especially at +850. The next tier of the Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, and New York Mets is also talented, and the White Sox and Mets have been aggressively improving their rosters this offseason.
The Dodgers have no real weaknesses. Their lineup is excellent, their rotation is great and deep, and they have continued to fill out their already impressive bullpen. If the Yankees were in the National League, they would likely have longer odds. But they aren’t. They’re in an American League that is wide open. But there are enough question marks about them and enough competition in their division and the American League not to want to take them at +490.
The Padres may share a division with the Dodgers, but by no means are they lying down and hoping for a Wild Card birth. This offseason alone has added Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Ha-seong Kim, and Victor Caratini. And that’s on top of the young talent they have already been developing and the moves they made last season. Their lineup is deep and can produce top-to-bottom, and their starting rotation of Darvish, Snell, Dinelson Lamet, Joe Musgrove, and Chris Paddack (with top prospect MacKenzie Gore waiting in the wings) could be one of the best in baseball. At +850, and knowing A.J. Preller will do whatever it takes to win during this window of opportunity for the Padres, I’m taking San Diego to win the whole thing.
Bet: Padres +850
Best Value Play
When I started writing this, the Toronto Blue Jays were my pick for “Favorite Longshot,†but they traded for George Springer while I was already talking up the young talent in their lineup. That bumped their odds from +3,500 to +2,200 and into the Top 10. So, I had to pivot and consider them my “Best Value Play†instead. Before adding Springer, the Toronto lineup already consisted of Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Rowdy Tellez, and Randall Grichuk. For a moment, it looked like they might be adding Michael Brantley, as well, but he ended up returning to the Astros. Still, this gives the Blue Jays arguably the best lineup in the American League and one of the best lineups in all of baseball.
The main issue for the Blue Jays remains their pitching. They just added Kirby Yates to the back-end of their bullpen, and Tyler Chatwood was a nice depth addition, but they need more. Perhaps their rumored interest in but failure to sign Brantley is a blessing in disguise because now Toronto can use the money they would have spent on the veteran outfielder on a pitching upgrade. Their starting rotation currently consists of veteran Hyun Jin-Ryu, young ace-in-the-making Nate Pearson, the solid-but-unspectacular Ross Stripling. Then a couple of question marks Robbie Ray and Tanner Roark. Ray has the potential to be a great low-risk, high-reward addition, but he is hardly someone Toronto can count on down the stretch and into the playoffs. Roark should be a cromulent innings eater at the back of the rotation, but he too leaves a lot to be desired and is 34 years old.
Trevor Bauer is still out there. So are Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, Jake Odorizzi, Taijuan Walker, Rick Porcello, Chris Archer, and Garrett Richards. After Bauer, are any of those ideal options? No, but the Blue Jays need, at the very least, pitchers who can give them some quality innings. If they don’t fix their pitching, it might not matter how good their lineup is in September and October. But it feels like they know that, and that’s why grabbing the Blue Jays at +2,200 is the best value play right now.
Bet: Blue Jays +2,200
Favorite Longshot
The Milwaukee Brewers were not a team I intended to write about in this piece. Like I said above, I was planning on using this space to talk about the Blue Jays before the George Springer trade. But I had to pivot, and the Brewers are an interesting longshot to consider. The Brewers finished fourth in the NL Central in the shortened 2020 season. Christian Yelich wasn’t himself, and not much else went right for them. But other than banking on a Yelich bounce-back, is there much reason for optimism?
Well, yes and no. The Brewers haven’t done much this offseason, which is discouraging. But neither have the Cardinals, while the Cubs and Reds have been actively shedding players/talent. The Pirates are the NL Central version of the Springfield Tire Fire. And since this offseason is moving at a snail’s pace, the cost-conscious Brewers may be waiting for some bargains to be had in the late January and February versions of free agency.
The NL Central is there for the taking, and so is the playoff spot that comes with it. While it could use another bat, the Brewers could have a solid lineup with Lorenzo Cain returning and Yelich and Keston Hiura bouncing back. Their bullpen, likewise, has a couple of metrics darlings in Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes and then some question marks. With Josh Hader, Devin Williams, Brent Suter, and Freddy Peralta, their bullpen is solid.
This is no sure thing. The Brewers are a flawed team with holes. But they’re also probably a move or two away from being the odds-on favorites to win the NL Central, and that isn’t a bad gamble for a team currently sitting at +4,000.
Bet: Brewers +4,000
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.