MLB Futures Bets: Home Run Leader Picks (2023)

by Matthew Buss |
Feb 15, 2023

The 2022 baseball season was undoubtedly one to remember, and American League MVP Aaron Judge was a big reason why. Judgeâ€™s miraculous season saw him launch an American League record 62 home runs, the most in a single season since Barry Bonds hit 73 in 2001. While Judgeâ€™s power is immense, there has not been a repeat champion in this statistic since JosÃ© Bautista in 2010-2011.

With the overflow of incredible talent in the Major Leagues over the past few seasons, several qualified hitters could make a case for the title of home run king in 2023.

MLB Home Run Regular Season Leader Bet

Below are the odds of select MLB Players ad my picks to lead the MLB in home runs in 2023, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tier One Picks (+100 to +1000):

1.) Aaron Judge (OF, DH â€“ NYY) | +600

It would be an injustice to use this first pick for anyone but Judge after his domination in 2022. Leading the league with 62 home runs, Judge hit 16 more than the next closest player (Kyle Schwarber). Not much about Judgeâ€™s current situation has changed, as he eventually decided to stay with the Yankees.

Truthfully, the only thing that could potentially hold Judge back is himself. He has spent time on the injured list for stretches of his career but has remained healthy over the last two seasons. Several projections have chosen him to be the 2023 league leader in home runs, forecasting him to hit 44. This projection would be a substantial drop off of his 2022 season total, showing how amazing it truly was.

2.) Mike Trout (OF â€“ LAA) | +800

How on earth did Trout manage to hit 40 home runs while just playing 119 games in 2022? To put his power in perspective, Trout hit as many home runs as Pete Alonso while having 186 fewer plate appearances. It is true that Trout has struggled to stay on the field over the past few seasons but has been a Hall of Fame talent when healthy. Health aside, Trout also has the luxury of likely batting before 2021 AL MVP Shohei Ohtani, meaning pitchers are less likely to pitch around him. Trout has led the Majors in many categories during his incredible career but has yet to be the home run champion.

Tier Two Picks (+1000 to +2500):

1.) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B, DH) | +1200

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has lived up to the tremendous hype that surrounded him as a top prospect and son of a Hall of Famer. Vlad only hit 32 home runs last season but did slug 48 in 2021, which was good for first place in the American League (tied with Salvador Perez). Still only 23 years old, Guerrero Jr. has the potential to continue to progress as a hitter. While his resumÃ© and age are reasons to buy in, the fact that Vlad Jr. has only missed three games over the last three seasons shows that he can stay on the field. Half the battle of leading the league in an offensive counting statistic, like home runs, is getting enough plate appearances and staying off the injured list.

2.) Kyle Tucker (OF â€“ HOU)| +2000

The Houston Astros have been incredible during their run of six straight American League Championship Series appearances, and a lot of that success can be attributed to their homegrown talent. Kyle Tucker, an Astros first-round draft pick in 2015, has put together impressive back-to-back seasons while slugging 30 home runs in each. Tucker is entering his age 26 season and has increased his flyball percentage each of the past three years. The Astros have a lot of talent in their lineup, which should give Tucker protection if he bats in the top half of the order.

Tier Three Picks (+2500 to +5000)

1.) Rafael Devers (3B â€“ BOS) | +3500

The last remaining Boston position player from the 2018 World Series Championship team, Rafael Devers, has shown power over his young career. Devers has exceeded 30 home runs twice, most recently in 2021, when he hit 38 over 156 games. While the 2023 Red Sox lineup does not have the same talent that it possessed in the past, Devers is still only 26 years old and is very talented, finishing top 10 in extra-base hits in every season since 2019.

2.) Ronald AcuÃ±a Jr. (OF, DH â€“ ATL) | +4000

A three-time All-Star, Ronald AcuÃ±a Jr. has been one of the most exciting players in baseball since his promotion in 2018. Health has held him back during parts of his young career, only exceeding 119 games once. AcuÃ±a Jr. was outstanding during his 2019 campaign, nearly becoming just the fifth member of the 40/40 club with his 41 home runs and 37 stolen bases. Now poised to start 2023 healthy and on an extremely talented Atlanta Braves team, AcuÃ±a Jr. could be a potential steal at +4000 if he can regain any of his 2019 power form.

Tier Four Picks (+5000 to +10000)

1.) Rowdy Tellez (1B â€“ MIL) | +5500

Rowdy Tellez made the most of his first season as a full-time starter in 2022, belting 35 home runs. Tellez has a big frame and has shown his ability to drive the ball to all parts of the field. On a Brewers roster that lacks any competition at first base, Tellez will have the opportunity to play every day. The Brewers also play in a pro-hitterâ€™s park, giving Rowdy opportunity to exceed his 2022 offensive stats.

2.) Tyler Oâ€™Neill (OF â€“ STL) | +10000

At +10000, Tyler Oâ€™Neill is worth a look, considering he launched 34 home runs during his 2021 season. Limited to just 94 games in 2022, Oâ€™Neill is expected to start in left field for the reigning NL Central Champion Cardinals. At just 27 years old, Oâ€™Neill has the power to reach his previous career high and potentially exceed it if he can stay healthy. Oâ€™Neill is also a two-time Gold Glove winner, giving him a higher chance to stay in the lineup.

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