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MLB Futures Bets: Stolen Base Leader Picks (2023)

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When it comes to leading the Major Leagues in stolen bases, several conditions need to exist. Primarily, if one is to become a stolen base champion, their health and playing time are vital. Baserunning injuries are common and can deter athletes from running when they return.

While health is a key factor, speed and baserunning ability are also necessary. Speed demons that are poor baserunners may find themselves caught stealing, leading to them potentially losing that important green light. Finally, the management’s philosophy on running is important and can stop a great stolen base artist long before the season begins.

The 2022 season saw an uptick in stolen bases across the league, a 273 increase, and the most total stolen bases since 2017. Jon Berti, who played primarily second base for the Miami Marlins, led the majors with 41 stolen bases in 2022.

MLB Stolen Base Regular Season Leader Bet

Below are the odds of select MLB Players and my picks to lead the MLB in stolen bases in 2023, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tier One Picks (+100 to +1000):

1.) Adalberto Mondesí (INF- BOS) | +500

Year after year, no base stealer is more talked about than Adalberto Mondesí. Mondesí, who led the Majors in stolen bases in 2020, has only exceeded 100 games once in his career. His health is certainly a question mark, as Mondesí is still recovering from his 2022 ACL surgery. Adalberto was traded to Boston over the offseason, a franchise that collectively stole only 52 bases in 2022. If there is any silver lining, Boston manager Alex Cora said he wants more stolen bases for the Red Sox in 2023.

2.) Esteury Ruiz (OF- OAK) | +700

Esteury Ruiz, who was traded twice since August 2022, could be a starting outfielder for the Oakland Athletics this season. Esteury only has 35 MLB plate appearances in his young career but stole 85 bases in the minor leagues in 2022. Amazingly, Ruiz has attempted 302 stolen bases over 2,236 plate appearances during his minor league career. To make things more impressive, the 24-year-old Ruiz had a .447 OBP between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022.

Tier Two Picks (+1000 to +2500):

1.) Jake McCarthy (OF - ARI) | +1700

The 2023 Diamondbacks have several talented outfielders, but Jake McCarthy’s position appears to be safe after his solid 2022 season. After stealing 23 bags in his rookie campaign, including a league-leading 10 steals in September, McCarthy seems poised for an even bigger year in 2023. It also helps that Arizona ranked sixth in the Majors in steals in 2022, a massive turnaround from their 2021 season, where they finished bottom three in the league.

2.) Jon Berti (2B, 3B, OF - MIA) | +2000

Berti led the Majors in stolen bases in 2022 with 41, playing in a career-high 102 games. Miami, as a team, stole 122 bases, leading the entire National League. If the 33-year-old Berti sees a regression in his steals, it could be because of Miami’s offseason acquisitions. The Marlins brought in infielders Jean Segura and Luis Arraez, who expect to cut into Berti’s playing time at 2nd and 3rd base.

Tier Three Picks (+2500 to +5000)

1.) Bubba Thompson (OF - TEX) | +4000

Bubba Thompson miraculously stole 18 bases in just 55 games for the Texas Rangers, a team that led the Majors in stolen bases in 2022. Thompson’s 18 steals occurred after his MLB debut on Aug. 4, and he was only caught three times. The biggest question mark for Thompson will be his playing time. Unfortunately, Thompson may start the season as the fourth option in the outfield, but that could change if he gets off to a hot start.

2.) Jose Siri (OF - TB) | +4500

Jose Siri tied for the third-fastest sprint speed in 2022 at 30.4 feet per second, turning that into 14 stolen bases. Acquired in a trade from Houston at the trade deadline, Siri swiped 57% of his steals for the Rays over the season’s last two months. Siri is projected by ESPN to be the starting centerfielder for Tampa Bay, and if he manages to keep that position, he should be able to greatly improve on his 2022 stolen base total.

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