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MLB Futures: Top Picks to Make/Miss Playoffs (2024)

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Last year’s Major League Baseball playoff bracket included several teams that were expected to be there, like the Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves. However, while those teams had expensive preseason odds to make the playoffs, bettors who projected the Baltimore Orioles, Miami Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks as playoff teams turned in nice paydays.

There are plenty of teams whose preseason odds to make or miss the playoffs are untouchable, as the odds for the Braves (-1400 to make the playoffs), Dodgers (-2500 to make the playoffs), Chicago White Sox (-10000 to miss the playoffs) and Oakland Athletics (-20000 to miss the playoffs) provide little value. Thus, we instead focus our attention on three plays that pay plus-money odds, as we want to maximize our returns when invested in teams over a full 162-game slate.

What teams do we project to be in this year’s playoff bracket, and what teams will be watching from home in October?

Here are our best bets for which MLB teams will make or miss the playoffs in 2024.

Check out all of the consensus odds for 2024 MLB Win Totals >>

    2024 MLB Best Bets to Make/Miss the Playoffs

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    San Francisco Giants To Make/Miss the Playoffs (+195/-230) 

    Last year, the San Francisco Giants were in contention for a playoff spot for much of the season before fading down the stretch and ultimately falling five games short of the last wild card.

    Manager Gabe Kapler employed unusual tactics for much of the year, using his bullpen in unique ways, as he felt he did not have many reliable starting pitchers outside of Logan Webb and Alex Cobb. Giants relievers threw by far the most innings in the Majors (705.1), 24 more than the next closest team. The bullpen’s overuse, combined with Cobb being shut down in late September, aided in the team’s collapse. Bob Melvin will now manage the Giants, and his more conventional style will suit the team better over the long haul.

    San Francisco’s offense finished 25th or worse in wOBA, BABIP, and slugging last season, which is why the acquisition of Jorge Soler was so important. Over the last three seasons, Soler has projected for an average of 34 home runs and 81 RBIs on a 162-game pace. He instantly slots in as the team’s cleanup hitter, something the Giants desperately sought after missing out on signing Aaron Judge last offseason.

    The starting rotation may have gotten a massive upgrade if converting Jordan Hicks to a starter project works out, as he will fill the void left by Sean Manaea going to the Mets. Ace Logan Webb has the third-best odds (+950) at DraftKings to win the NL Cy Young Award, and the bullpen is loaded with power arms, led by one of the best closers in the game, Camilo Doval. The Dodgers might run away with the NL West, but the expanded playoffs make the Giants an intriguing choice at +195 odds to nab one of the NL’s wild cards.

    Bet: Giants To Make the Playoffs (+195)

    Milwaukee Brewers To Make/Miss the Playoffs (+300/-370) 

    Most prognosticators have left the Brewers for dead after trading ace Corbin Burnes to the Orioles. However, perhaps the Brewers were smart to let him go (although I think they could have gotten more for him), as Burnes has seen his K-BB rate drop considerably each year over the last three years from 6.88 to 3.03. Milwaukee’s rotation still has a bonafide breakout star in Freddy Peralta, who has been overshadowed by Burnes the last couple of years. The Brewers will also get back a healthy Brandon Woodruff as a solid No. 2. He was limited to just 11 starts last season after making 57 combined starts the two years prior.

    Many of the best arms are back for a Brewers bullpen that led the NL (and ranked second in the Majors) with a 3.40 ERA and .273 BABIP. Based on FanGraphs’ metrics, The Brewers had the best defensive team in the Majors. The gap between them and the second-best team’s overall defensive score was nearly as big as the gap between the second and fifth-best team.

    Even though offseason acquisition Rhys Hoskins missed all of last year with a torn ACL, he has to be a big improvement at first base. Milwaukee’s first basemen collectively slashed .231/.292/.389 last season. Milwaukee also has optimism about having the MLB’s second-best farm system, per Baseball America, with plenty of reinforcements available when the season gets into the dog days.

    The NL Central is seen as the most wide-open division in baseball, as the Chicago Cubs have the longest odds (+180) of any of the six projected division winners. We see great value in the Milwaukee Brewers’ +700 odds to win the division. Instead, we are opting for their +300 odds to make the playoffs, as it only took 84 wins to nab a wild card spot in what was a watered-down National League last year.

    Bet: Brewers To Make the Playoffs (+300)

    Baltimore Orioles To Make/Miss the Playoffs (-220/+185) 

    No team exceeded expectations last season more than the Orioles, who finished with an AL-best 101 wins compared to a preseason projection of 77. However, we are not as high on their addition of Corbin Burnes as most are. We have already cited his declining strikeout potential, and we expect Baltimore to crash down and play much closer to last year’s preseason projections than how they finished.

    The AL East is a bear and housed three of the top-five teams (Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays) in the entire American League last season. That does not consider that the Yankees are due for a massive rebound. New York finished with 82 wins, the franchise’s lowest amount since 1992, and they just added the biggest bat in the offseason (Juan Soto) not named Shohei Ohtani.

    Pythagorean win differential pegged the Orioles as a 94-win team, not a 101-win team last season. While that still would have been plenty of wins to nab one of the AL’s wild cards last season, it also speaks to the fact that Baltimore going an AL-best 51-39 against teams over .500 last season will be difficult to replicate. The Orioles also had the second-best record in the Majors in one-run games (30-16), and they are unlikely to finish 12 games over .500 against a gauntlet of a division again.

    Oddsmakers have seemingly tipped their hands by not making Baltimore the favorite in the AL East following a 101-win season. That honor goes to the Yankees. There is not much better value out there backing any team to miss the playoffs than the +185 odds attached to the Orioles.

    Bet: Orioles To Miss the Playoffs (+185)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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