Navigate

MLB To Hit A Home Run Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions (4/29)

by |

If you are lucky enough to find HR props in the Giants/Padres game, I suggest taking any player from the game. DraftKings has the total set at 15, so that should tell you that we should expect some dingers in that game.

Best To Hit A Home Run Player Prop Bets

At the time of this write-up, DraftKings had taken down all HR props.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+285) & Matt Chapman (+275)

The Blue Jays will go up against the Mariners and Chris Flexen. Flexen is 0-4 with a 8.86 ERA. The righty has also given up five home runs over his first four starts and has an HR/9 of 2.11. That’s well above the league average. 

The Blue Jays are one of the best hitting teams against right-handed pitchers. As a team, they rank 7th in wOBA, 6th in wRC+ and 10th in ISO.

Leading the Blue Jays are the big 3 – Chapman, Guerrero and Bo Bichette. All three have a great chance at leaving the park tonight, but we especially like Chapman and Vlad because of their ISO. Both have an ISO over .200, with Chapman’s nearing .300 (.273).

Nolan Arenado (+330)

Arenado has gotten off to a slow start, batting .248 with only two home runs. Maybe seeing a familiar face on the mound tonight will help him get out of a slump. Tonight, the Cardinals go up against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers.

Arenado has had great success against the Kershaw. In his career, Arenado is 21 for 67, batting .313 with three doubles and five home runs against Kershaw. While the Cardinals’ third baseman is off to a slow start, he has done well against lefties this season, batting .286 with one home run. Arenado’s OBP and SLG jump up .200 points when facing lefties. 

Brandon Lowe (+320) & Randy Arozarena (+550)

It’s time I jump on the Rays bandwagon regarding these HR Props. Better late than never, right?

The Rays have the most home runs against right-handed pitchers in the league this year and have a fantastic matchup against Lance Lynn. Over his first four starts in 2023, Lynn is 0-3 with a 7.52 ERA while giving up six home runs. He also has a HR/9 of 2.39 and an HR/FB rate of 20 percent. Both marks are way above the league average. 

Let’s see if these Rays hitters will give me some good luck. 

Check out our other best bets for Saturday:

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App