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MLB to Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/28)

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The Major League Baseball season is in full stride as we enter a packed weekend of action! With that comes a ton of different betting options available, but I've narrowed in on these three longshot props for players to hit home runs. 

Let's dive in and break down these matchups for my favorite home run player props tonight! 

MLB YTD: 22-24 (+14.59 Units)

View the best player prop bets for tonight's slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Best To Hit A Home Run Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Matt Olson (+425)

While it's very early in the season, we have a behemoth of a series in Queens this weekend as the Braves square off against the Mets for four games. Atlanta currently holds a 2.0-game edge over New York in the National League East standings. Tonight's tilt is set for 7:10 p.m. ET from Citi Field in Queens, N.Y.

Max Fried gets the nod for the Braves, while the Mets counter with David Peterson. Peterson, a left-hander, comes into this one at 1-3 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over five starts (25.2 IP). The southpaw has been susceptible to the long ball this year, yielding seven home runs to opponents already.

Enter Matt Olson, Atlanta's team leader in big flies this year with seven. It's a limited sample size of just eight at-bats, but the star first baseman is 2-8 (.250) against Peterson with two home runs and five RBI. Let's lock in Olson to go yard once again. 

Marcus Semien (+425)

Gerrit Cole's hot start continued last night as he improved to 5-0 in a 4-2 victory for the Yankees over the Rangers. The two sides are back at it tonight for game two of their four-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET from Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.

Clarke Schmidt will head to the bump for New York, while Texas opts for their ace in Jacob deGrom. Schmidt hasn't proved much this season, as he's given up at least three runs in each of his five starts (20.0 IP). Along with that, opponents have already cranked six dingers off the right-hander. Ultimately, Schmidt enters tonight's action at 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. 

Marcus Semien got off to a slow start this year, but he's rebounded and is currently slashing .287/.360/.485 with five jacks. He's 0-1 (.000) in his career against Schmidt, but it's worth noting the bulk of his damage has come against righties this season. Semien's hitting .311 against right-handers, and all five of his round-trippers have come against RHP. 

Kyle Tucker (+400)

It's a World Series rematch in H-Town as the Phillies take on the Astros for a weekend trio of games. Aaron Nola takes the ball for Philadelphia while Houston counters with Framber Valdez in this interleague showdown slated for 8:10 p.m. ET from Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. 

Nola is off to a mediocre start in 2023, sitting at 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Most recently, the right-hander faced the Rockies and tossed 7.0 innings, allowing three earned runs on four hits and three walks. He took a no-decision in the 4-3 victory. 

Nola will have a tall task tonight against a loaded Houston lineup full of sluggers. Included in that lineup will be star outfielder Kyle Tucker. The left-handed batter is hitting .302 with five blasts and 19 RBI this season. As for the head-to-head stats, he's a fruitful 3-6 (.500) against Nola with two moon shots and a double. Let's take a shot with Tucker to leave the yard tonight.

Check out our other best bets for Friday:


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