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MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/5)

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We're heading into a jam-packed weekend of baseball with some intriguing matchups on the schedule. Of course, that comes with a plethora of different betting options for Friday night's 15-game slate. I'm taking it to the prop sheet tonight where I'm locking in these three players to hit a home run! Let's dive into the matchups. 

MLB YTD: 25-30 (+16.92 Units)

Today's Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Justin Turner (+800)

The red-hot Red Sox hit the road after winning six straight games and sweeping the Blue Jays at Fenway Park. The first stop of their five-game road trip is Philadelphia, where they'll take on the 2022 World Series runner-up Phillies. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. 

Chris Sale will take the ball for Boston in the series opener while Philadelphia opts for Zack Wheeler. Wheeler's off to a respectable start in 2023 as he comes into this one at 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 32.2 innings pitched. Most recently, the right-hander held the Astros scoreless over 6.0 innings in a 6-1 win. He struck out seven batters while allowing just three hits and a walk. 

While that was Wheeler's second straight quality start, he'll be in for a tall task tonight against a Boston lineup that's plated 47 runs over their six-game win streak (7.8 RPG). Furthermore, the Red Sox have seen him well in his career, slashing .290/.353/.419 against him over 31 at-bats. Specifically, Justin Turner is 4-for-8 (.500) against the righty with a home run. Turner's off to a 5-for-13 (.385) start to May with two doubles and an RBI. Let's lock him in to hit his third home run of the year. 

Starling Marte (+800)

Contrary to the Red Sox, the Mets' offensive production has been very underwhelming this season. They've been shut out a league-leading six times already and are coming off a three-game sweep by the Tigers where they scored just six total runs (2.0 RPG). However, they'll have a favorable matchup tonight when they return home to host the Rockies. This one gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET from Citi Field in Queens, NY. 

Kodai Senga gets the nod for New York while Colorado counters with Antonio Senzatela in his season debut. Senzatela tore his ACL fielding a ground ball in August 2022, forcing him to miss the remainder of the year and the beginning of this campaign. The right-hander is coming off a season where he went 3-7 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. 

The Mets have owned Senzatela throughout his career, posting a .299/.324/.495 slash line over 107 at-bats. They've launched five home runs and recorded four doubles against him. Starling Marte stands out as he's 7-for-11 (.636) against the 28-year-old righty with a home run and a double. While Marte may not be known for his power, it's worth noting that he still has 143 career long balls to his resume. Let's take a flier on the +800 payout for him to go yard for the second time this year.  

Pete Alonso (+450)

Keeping it in the same game, I'm riding with Pete Alonso to hit a bomb tonight. The star first baseman hasn't hit a round-tripper against Senzatela in his career, but he's 4-9 (.444) with a double against him. Being that he's a known slugger and currently second in the MLB in big flies (11) this year, I think it's worth a shot to say he blasts one tonight. 

If, for whatever reason, Senzatela looks like an All-Star tonight and turns in a great outing, we can still lean on Colorado's bottom-tier bullpen for some late home run opportunities. The Rockies' arm barn is ranked 23rd in ERA (4.50) and 25th in WHIP (1.42). This feels like a huge bounce-back spot for New York and I expect them to tee off against this pedestrian Colorado pitching staff.

Check out our other best bets for Friday:


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