MLB To Hit A Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Saturday (5/6)

Saturday’s HR props include a trio of teammates and a Kansas City Royal making his HR Prop debut. 

Best Bets to Hit a Homer

Bryce Harper (+260), Trea Turner (+500), & Kyle Shwarber (+210)

Patrick Corbin Day has become a trendy day for baseball bettors. Anytime Patrick Corbin pitches, it’s been very profitable fading him and betting his opponents to win, cover, and even hit the over on their team total. 

Well, we need to start recognizing Corey Kluber’s day. From the start of 2023, a case can be made that Corey Kluber has been worse than Patrick Corbin.

2023 stats.

Patrick Corbin

• HR/9: 1.41
• xFIP: 4.21
• SIERRA: 4.58
• BABIP: .313
• Hard Hit%: 30.6%

Corey Kluber

• HR/9: 2.45
• xFIP: 5.40
• SIERRA: 4.95
• BABIP: .256
• Hard Hit%: 34.4% 

I am looking to back the Phillies offense in every way possible tonight and expect one of the Big 3 to have a big night.

Schwarber has gotten off to a slower start, which is nothing new for him, but I love his matchup tonight. Seven of his 11 extra-base hits have come against right-handed pitching, including four of his seven home runs.

Trea Turner is a great athlete but not usually known as a power hitter. Still, at +500 odds, this is an excellent value on a guy who hit a career-high 21 home runs a season ago and can smash right-handed pitching-Turner’s average and Slug% jump significantly when facing an RHP.

Bryce Harper made his season debut just three days ago, which was an ugly one. He went 0-4 with three strikeouts. Since then, he has gone 4-7 with a double and only one strikeout. Kluber is the perfect pitcher for Harper to lock in and hit his first HR of the season.

Bobby Witt Jr. (+330)

Bobby Witt has the pleasure of facing one of the worst pitchers on today’s slate.

Ken Waldichuk is 0-2 with a 7.26 ERA. Now ERA always doesn’t show the entire picture; pitchers with a high ERA can be a bit unlucky. Unfortunately for Waldichuk, this is not the case; the A’s starter has a 5.47 xFIP, an 5.11 SIERA, and a .309 BABIP, which is basically saying he is as bad as his ERA shows.

As for Witt, he is one of the lone bright spots for the Kansas City Royals this season and leads his team in ISO and HRs when facing an LHP.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Tuesday:

• NBA Playoffs Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
• MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions
• MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
• NHL Playoffs Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>

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