MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Friday (10/18)
All four remaining MLB teams are in action tonight, as they each try to take another step toward the World Series. For the Dodgers (3-1), they're just one win away from booking their ticket to the Fall Classic. As for the American League Championship Series, the Guardians (1-2) secured a much-needed victory against the visiting Yankees (2-1) yesterday, and the two sides will square off for Game 4 tonight.
From a sports betting perspective, I'm heading to the prop sheet tonight. Below I've listed my three favorite longshot home run prop bets.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kike Hernandez (+950)
Let's start in the Big Apple, where the Dodgers (3-1) are looking to finish off the Mets (1-3) and advance to the World Series. Game 5’s pitching matchup features a battle between Jack Flaherty and David Peterson. First pitch is scheduled for 5:08 p.m. ET from Citi Field in Queens, NY.
My biggest longshot of the day is Kike Hernandez. The veteran util-man is putting together a big-time postseason, slashing .346/.370/.577 over 26 at-bats. He has two XBHs, both of which have been home runs. Hernandez wasn't a huge home run threat in the regular season, but he did blast 12 of them during the 2024 campaign. This guy always rises up when the lights are the brightest, and I'm sprinkling on him to touch 'em all tonight in this close-out game.
Hernandez will be facing David Peterson (2.90 ERA), and the left-hander hasn't found success against the Dodgers. Their current lineup is slashing .343/.380/.612 against him over 67 at-bats. Specifically, Kike is 4-for-7 (.571) with a double. New York will likely rely on their bullpen quite a bit in this game, but that's music to my ears as their relief staff has conceded a playoff-leading seven homers during October.
Jesse Winker (+900)
Keeping it in the same game, I'm also locking in Jesse Winker to go yard. Like Hernandez, Winker is putting together a solid postseason. The left-handed slugger is slashing .267/.476/.600 this postseason. He has a home run and a triple in 15 at-bats.
This is a solid matchup for Winker against Flaherty (3.17 ERA), as he's 9-for-24 (.375) against him with two tanks and a trio of doubles. Of the four starting pitchers tonight, Flaherty logged the highest HR/9 rate (1.33) amongst his cohort during the regular season. I think Winker's another longshot guy who can deposit one into the bleachers.
Aaron Judge (+290)
It was a back-and-forth game in Cleveland on Thursday, and the Guardians eventually notched a 7-5 extra-innings victory over the Yankees. The two sides are back at it tonight, and we have a pitching matchup between Luis Gil and Gavin Williams. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 ET from Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH.
Williams will be making his playoff debut, and his last outing came on September 22 during the regular season. It wasn't an overpowering campaign for the right-hander, who registered a 3-10 record to go along with a 4.86 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Williams logged a solid 0.83 HR/9 rate over 76.0 innings pitched.
One guy who has gotten to Williams is Aaron Judge. The likely AL MVP is 1-for-2 (.500) against Williams with a solo home run. We all know the damage that the New York slugger is capable of, but it's always fun to rewrite it because the numbers are just that wild. Judge led the league in home runs (58), RBI (144), and OPS (1.159) while sitting third in batting average (.322). This guy's always a candidate to go yard, and I think he's primed to do so for the third time this postseason.
Highest HR/9 Starting Pitchers Today
- Jack Flaherty (1.33, 162.0 IP)
- Luis Gil (1.07, 151.2 IP)
- Gavin Williams (0.83, 76.0 IP)
- David Peterson (0.60, 121.0 IP)