MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Friday (3/28)
The 2025 MLB season is here. Friday's slate features nine games. Let's dive into the top MLB home pun picks and predictions for today's matchups.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is a fun and alternative way to get action on MLB games. The plus-money odds can provide bigger payouts if you nail the right guy to go yard. Let's focus on a couple of MLB players worth backing to hit a homer on Friday, March 28th.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Friday's Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kyle Tucker (+390)
Kyle Tucker is an MVP candidate for the Chicago Cubs following his offseason trade from the Houston Astros. Despite playing only half a season last year, Tucker put together one of his best statistical campaigns. The outfielder smacked 23 home runs in 78 games and posted career-highs in OPS (.993), slugging percentage (.585) and on-base percentage (.408).
Tucker has a good chance of going deep against Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly. Last year, the lefty-swinging Tucker slugged .655 with a 1.082 OPS vs. righties as 18 of his 23 homers came in the split.
As for Kelly, he coughed up 11 home runs in 13 starts last season. His 1.34 HR/9 rate was also his worst in four years. The Arizona righty struggled a bit in spring training with a 4.70 ERA across five starts. Kelly just gave up three homers in his most recent spring outing.
Adolis Garcia (+480)
After hitting 39 home runs two years ago, Adolis Garcia regressed a bit in the power department last season. The Texas Rangers outfielder "only" had 25 homers in 2024. Even so, Garcia is always capable of going deep.
Garcia, despite being a right-handed hitter, can mash righty pitchers. Last year, 18 of his 25 home runs came against right-handed pitchers. Two years ago, 30 of his 39 bombs came against righties.
Garcia will face Boston Red Sox right-hander Tanner Houck. Though Houck only allowed 11 homers over 30 starts last season, there are a couple of factors going against him. Houck had a rough spring training with an 11.20 ERA across four starts, including getting rocked for 10 runs on 12 hits in his most recent outing.
Meanwhile, Garcia homered in three of his last 10 spring training games coming into the season. In a limited sample size, Garcia is 4-for-7 with two home runs against Houck across their careers.