MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Friday (4/12)
The weekend is upon us and I say we start it off with a few longshot props in the MLB. Below I've narrowed in on my four favorite To Hit a Home Run prop bets from tonight's 15-game slate.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bobby Witt Jr. (+425)
The Royals are on an absolute heater right now. They've broken out the brooms in two consecutive series, beating the White Sox in four straight games and following it up with a three-game sweep of the Astros. They'll make the trip to the Big Apple to open up a series against the Mets. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET from Citi Field in Queens, New York.
Michael Wacha takes the ball for the Royals, while the Mets opt for Luis Severino in this interleague matchup. Severino has been prone to the longball in the recent years of his career, where he owned a 2.32 HR/9 rate in 2023. That number is 0.90 over a 10.0-inning sample size this season, and the right-hander also owns a 3.60 ERA and 1.60 WHIP through two starts.
I'll take a flier on Bobby Witt Jr. to touch 'em all tonight. The budding superstar hit two bombs last night against the Astros, bringing him to four total on the year (sixth). He's also hitting .358 (11th) with a 1.169 OPS (fifth). As for his head-to-head numbers against Severino, Witt Jr.'s 2-3 (.667) against him with a pair of singles. I think the power surge will carry over to the new series, so I'll play Witt Jr. to go deep.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (+500)
The Braves are looking to bounce back after getting pounded in a 16-4 game with the Mets yesterday. They'll turn to Max Fried to get them back in the win column while the Marlins roll with Trevor Rogers in this battle of the lefties. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET from loanDepot Park in Miami.
Neither Fried (18.00 ERA) nor Rogers (5.40 ERA) have gotten off to great starts in the new campaign. Considering Rogers will take on the best offense in baseball tonight, I'll go ahead and fade him. At 5/1, I think it's a great time to lock in Ronald Acuna Jr. to launch his first home run of the season. This is a great matchup for Acuna Jr. to find his swing, as he's 4-8 (.500) with two doubles and a bomb against Rogers. The star outfielder's coming off a season where he blasted a career-high 41 home runs, and it's only a matter of time before he finds his power.
Mookie Betts (+475) & Shohei Ohtani (+265)
Tonight's MLB schedule wraps up out west with a heavyweight matchup between the Padres and the Dodgers. Michael King gets the nod for the Friars while the Dodgers hand the ball to Yoshinobu Yamamoto. First pitch is set for 10:10 p.m. ET from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles.
I noted that the Braves have the best offense in baseball, well, Dodgers fans may have something to say about that. Atlanta has the edge in both average and OPS, but Los Angeles has hit a league-leading 20 home runs this season. Mookie Betts (five HRs) leads the way, while Shohei Ohtani is third on the roster with a trio of homers. I'll ride with these sluggers to each go yard tonight.
They'll square off against King, who has yielded two big flies over 14.1 innings this year (1.26 HR/9). But it's all about the head-to-head numbers. Betts is 1-2 (.500) against King with a home run, while Ohtani is 2-6 (.333) with two tanks. I think these stars are primed to go deep tonight as the Dodgers return to Los Angeles to start a nine-game home stand.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: