The 2025 MLB season is off and running. Friday’s slate is jam-packed with 14 games on the schedule. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run picks and predictions for today’s matchups.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is a fun and alternative way to get action on MLB games. The plus-money odds can provide bigger payouts if you nail the right guy to go yard. Let’s focus on a couple of MLB players worth backing to hit a homer on Friday, April 4th.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Friday's Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Juan Soto (+350)
Today is the home opener for the New York Mets after playing their first six games on the road. It's also the first time Juan Soto will play in front of his new home fans since signing that massive offseason contract. Let's back Soto to rise to the occasion and go deep with a few key stats and trends in his favor.
Soto has good career numbers at Citi Field, hitting .333 with a .709 slugging percentage and 1.174 OPS. He's also hit 12 home runs in 35 career games at his new home ballpark. Today, Soto will face Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Kevin Gausman, against whom he's had plenty of success. In their careers, Soto is hitting .533 with a .741 on-base percentage (OBP) in 27 plate appearances vs. Gausman.
Plus, the lefty-swinging Soto hits right-handed pitching well. Last year, he hit .293 with a .999 OPS and 28 home runs (out of 41) against righties. In 2023, Soto hit .283 with a .980 OPS and 27 (out of 35) homers vs. right-handers. He's always done more damage in this split across his career, especially in the power department.
Back the Mets' star outfielder to leave the yard on Friday afternoon. Soto only has one home run so far this season, but is bound to get going. He hit .289 with four homers in spring training.
Pavin Smith (+480)
Sometimes, home run prop bets are more about fading certain pitchers. That's the case today with Washington Nationals starter Jake Irvin. The right-hander coughed up 29 home runs in 33 starts last season. Those 29 homers allowed were tied for the seventh-most in the MLB.
This is nothing new for Irvin, who gave up 20 home runs in 24 starts in 2023. Irvin has also pitched to a 4.41 ERA and 4.61 ERA in the past two seasons. In his first start of 2025, the Nats' righty threw five solid innings against the Phillies but did allow a homer to left-handed hitting Bryson Stott.
On that note, Irvin had slightly worse numbers against lefty hitters last year. He allowed 17 home runs and a .769 OPS to lefties compared to 12 homers and a .683 OPS to righties. Plus, Irvin struggled to a 5.01 ERA at home last season.
Irvin faces an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup with a few lefties worth considering to go deep. Let's take a look at Pavin Smith. The outfielder is off to a good start with a .308 average and 1.009 OPS through six games played. Last year, Smith had a .920 OPS and .564 slugging percentage vs. right-handed pitching. He's worth the value with Irvin's home run issues.
