MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Friday (8/30)
We're heading into a massive sports weekend, and I say we get things started with a few longshot home run prop bets. Here are three players who are primed to touch 'em all in the MLB tonight.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Elly De La Cruz (+425)
The Brewers and Reds will play a couple of games today, and the opening contest features a pitching matchup between Colin Rea and Nick Martinez. First pitch is scheduled for 12:40 p.m. ET from the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH.
Rea has slotted into Milwaukee's rotation nicely this year, going 12-4 with a 3.61 ERA (31st) and a 1.15 WHIP (26th). However, the right-hander has been hit-or-miss in his last three starts, posting a 5.03 ERA. He's conceded six home runs over the span, which equates to an HR/9 rate of 2.75. Overall this season, Rea owns an elevated 1.39 HR/9 rate.
Enter Elly De La Cruz. The star shortstop has had Rea's number in the past, going 3-for-8 (.375) against him with a home run and a triple. De La Cruz has jacked a team-leading 22 home runs this season. Also, it's going to be upper-90s in terms of temperature in Cincinnati this afternoon, so we could see the ball flying out of the already-hitter-friendly park. Let's take a flier on De La Cruz to go yard.
Manny Machado (+500)
The Padres remain one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning 26 of their last 35 games. They'll try to keep the momentum when they send Martin Perez to the bump to take on the Rays. Tampa counters with Taj Bradley in this series opener, which is scheduled for 6:50 p.m. ET from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL.
Overall this season, Bradley has been a serviceable option for the Rays. He enters the weekend at 6-8 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. However, the right-hander has struggled over his last five starts, logging a 7.96 ERA in 26.0 innings pitched. He's given up seven homers during the rough stretch (2.42 HR/9). Bradley brings in a HR/9 rate of 1.43, which is the sixth-highest among today's starting pitchers.
Meanwhile, Manny Machado has found a power surge over his last 12 games, launching four homers over the 12-game sample size. He's up to 22 bombs on the year, which leads San Diego's roster. We don't have any head-to-head numbers between Machado and Bradley, but with each guy's current form, I think it's worth a shot on Machado at 5/1.
Gunnar Henderson (+450)
The Orioles enter the weekend trailing the Yankees by 1.5 games in the American League East. They'll look to make up some ground as they take on the lowly Rockies. Tonight's series opener features a pitching matchup between Albert Suarez and Austin Gomber. First pitch is set for 8:40 p.m. ET from Coors Field in Denver, CO.
Considering half of his starts come at Coors Field, I guess you could say Gomber's 4.70 ERA (61st) and 1.29 WHIP (54th) aren't too bad. The one area where the left-hander has had issues is simply keeping the ball in the park. He brings in a 1.74 HR/9 rate, which is the second-highest among his cohort of starting pitchers today.
I'll ride with Gunnar Henderson to hit a bomb tonight. The star middle infielder is hitting .278 (29th) with a .898 OPS (11th) and 33 dingers (6th) in 2024. Eight of those long balls have come against LHP, so I like the matchup for Henderson, especially at Coors Field. Gomber has allowed at least one home run in eight of his last nine starts, and that's not a great statistic for when we're taking on a Baltimore offense that's second in the MLB in home runs (202). Let's lock in Gunnar to go deep at +450.
Highest HR/9 Starting Pitchers Today
- Adam Oller (1.74, 10.1 IP)
- Austin Gomber (1.74, 10.1 IP)
- Martin Perez (1.56, 109.2 IP)
- Ben Lively (1.49, 126.2 IP)
- Jake Irvin (1.44, 156.1 IP)