MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Friday (9/13)
The weekend is finally upon us. Let's get the party started with a few longshot home run prop bets. Below I've narrowed in on three players who I believe are primed to go yard tonight.
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Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Rafael Devers (+400)
The Yankees earned a 2-1 extra-innings victory over the Red Sox in last night's series opener. They'll look to keep things rolling when they send Clarke Schmidt to the bump. Boston counters with Tanner Houck in this rivalry showdown, which is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET from Bronx, NY.
I'm riding with Rafael Devers to go yard tonight. The Boston third baseman is up to 28 bombs (20th) on the year, which trails only Tyler O'Neill's 30 on the roster. Devers is in a bit of a home run drought, with his last one coming on August 25th. However, I think he's a great candidate to touch’em all tonight due to his head-to-head numbers against Schmidt. He's 6-for-12 (.500) against Schmidt with a couple of homers and a double.
Schmidt (2.34 ERA) has done well to keep the ball in the yard, logging a 0.83 HR/9 rate this year. But, I still like Devers' chances to go deep. He's put up excellent numbers against New York in his career, slashing .271/.340/.529 against them. Devers has launched 28 home runs against the Yankees, which is the most he's hit against one specific opponent. Let's lock in Devers to go deep at the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.
Cody Bellinger (+500)
The Cubs' West Coast road trip continues after they just took two out of three against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. The Rockies are up next. Tonight's series opener features a pitching matchup between Javier Assad and Austin Gomber. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET from Coors Field in Denver, CO.
Considering Gomber makes half of his starts at altitude, a 4.50 ERA (55th) and 1.26 WHIP (46th) isn't too bad in the grand scheme of things. With that said, the left-hander has struggled to keep the ball in the park in 2024. Gomber brings in a 1.60 HR/9 rate - the third-highest mark among today's starting pitchers.
I love this matchup for the Cubs, as they've found plenty of success against Gomber in the past. Chicago's current lineup is slashing .435/.533/.913 against him over 23 at-bats. That's a team OPS of 1.446. Specifically, I like Cody Bellinger to deposit one into the stands tonight. He's 2-for-4 (.500) against Gomber with a double. Bellinger's hit 17 homers this year (95th), with four of them coming in the last 12 games. He's hot right now and I think he has a good chance to go deep at Coors tonight.
Ketel Marte (+500)
The Diamondbacks are fresh off of a two-game sweep of the Rangers during their mid-week series. They remain in The Valley, where they'll host the Brewers for a weekend series. Tonight's pitching matchup should be a good one, as Freddy Peralta and Eduardo Rodriguez square off. First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ.
Peralta's putting together another solid season with Milwaukee, entering this contest at 10-8 with a 3.81 ERA (36th) and 1.22 WHIP (36th). If you can point to one weakness, it'd be his inability to keep the ball in the yard. Peralta's HR/9 rate sits at 1.42, and he has an HR/FB ratio of 13.4%.
I think it's likely we'll see plenty of scoring tonight. Arizona's offense is arguably the best in the league, ranking first in both runs per game (5.49) and OPS (.778), while sitting second in team batting average (.254). It has been Ketel Marte leading the way, hitting .295 (12th) with 31 tanks (11th) and a .924 OPS (ninth). I'll back Marte to go yard tonight. He hit a blast in Wednesday's 14-4 rout of the Rangers, giving him two homers in his last eight games. Marte also has a head-to-head edge against Peralta, where he's 2-for-4 (.500) against him with a double.
Highest HR/9 Starting Pitchers Today
- Julian Aguiar (2.11, 21.1 IP)
- Landon Knack (1.67, 54.0 IP)
- Austin Gomber (1.60, 152.0 IP)
- Emerson Hancock (1.59, 45.1 IP)
- Edward Cabrera (1.52, 83.0 IP)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: