MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Friday (9/27)
The MLB regular season wraps up this weekend, but there's still plenty of money to be made on the diamond over the next few days. From a betting perspective, I've narrowed in on a few longshot home run prop bets to get the weekend started. Here are three players who are primed to touch’em all tonight.
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Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Brandon Lowe (+550)
Neither the Rays nor the Red Sox will make the postseason in 2024, but this final series will determine how the American League East standings shake out. Friday's series opener features a pitching matchup between Taj Bradley and Nick Pivetta. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA.
Pivetta hasn't been overpowering this season, going just 6-11 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The long ball has hindered the right-hander, as his HR/9 rate is 1.81. That's the highest among today's starting pitchers. He's given up four bombs in his last three starts.
Enter Brandon Lowe, who leads the Rays in home runs this year with 21. He's launched five homers in his last 16 games. Lowe has seen Pivetta relatively well throughout his career, going 4-for-18 (.222) with three home runs. Let's ride with the left-handed slugger to send one out toward Pesky's Pole tonight.
Matt Olson (+360)
The marquee matchup of the weekend comes in Atlanta, as the Braves host the Royals for a trio of games. Both clubs are making playoff pushes for Wild Card spots heading into the final weekend. Tonight's game features a pitching matchup between Brady Singer and Max Fried. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET from Truist Park in Atlanta, GA.
Singer has been a serviceable option for the Royals this season, entering the weekend at 9-12 with a 3.73 ERA (30th) and 1.28 WHIP (46th). As for his home run numbers, the right-hander brings in a respectable 1.09 HR/9 rate and 14.2% HR/FB rate.
The Braves have dominated Singer in the past, as the current lineup is slashing .312/.353/.781 against him over 32 at-bats. That's a team OPS of 1.134. Specifically, Matt Olson stands out, as he's 2-for-5 (.400) with a home run versus Singer. Olson's been leading this team as they make their playoff push, blasting four home runs in his last seven games. Over the last 14 days, Atlanta's offense is ranked first in both wRC+ (142) and wOBA (.377), while sitting second in home runs (22). They should do damage tonight against Singer and I expect Olson to spearhead the attack. Let's back him to collect his 30th bomb of the year.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+370)
The Padres have clinched a Wild Card spot. Now they're simply looking to bury their divisional foe, the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Snakes currently hold the final National League Wild Card spot, where they have a 1.0-game cushion over the Braves. This series-opening contest features a great pitching matchup, as Yu Darvish squares off against Merrill Kelly. First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ.
It's been an up-and-down season for Kelly, who has spent plenty of time sidelined with injury. The right-hander comes into the weekend 5-0 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He's given up eight bombs in his last seven starts, inflating his HR/9 rate to 1.46. That's the seventh-highest among today's starters, while his 15.3% HR/FB rate is the fifth-highest.
Fernando Tatis Jr. returned to San Diego's lineup at the beginning of September, and he's been raking. His slash line is .296/.321/.642 in September. He has seven home runs in his last 14 games. Tatis is a solid 8-for-22 (.364) against Kelly throughout his career, taking the right-hander deep four times. I'll back Tatis to stay hot and touch’em all tonight.
Highest HR/9 Starting Pitchers Today
- Nick Pivetta (1.81, 139.0 IP)
- Reid Detmers (1.64, 82.1 IP)
- Joey Cantillo (1.54, 35.0 IP)
- Carlos Rodon (1.54, 169.2 IP)
- Taj Bradley (1.50, 132.0 IP)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: