MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Friday (9/6)
The MLB season may be winding down, but there's still plenty of money to be made throughout the final month of play. I'm heading to the prop sheet tonight, where I've narrowed in on three players who I believe are primed to touch’em all. Here are my top home run prop bets for Friday's MLB action.
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Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Sam Hillard (+700)
The Rockies notched a 3-1 victory over the Braves on Thursday night, avoiding the brooms in Atlanta. Their road trip continues tonight as they open up a series with the Brewers. Ryan Feltner gets the nod for the Rockies, while the Brewers counter with Frankie Montas. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee, WI.
If you're looking for a complete longshot tonight, I think Sam Hillard's our guy. The outfielder only has five home runs on the year, but 40% of those bombs have come over the last 10 games. Hillard, a left-handed hitter, has found more success against right-handed pitchers this year, raising his OPS to .808 (.769 against lefties).
Most importantly, it's all about the head-to-head numbers against Frankie Montas. Hillard is 3-for-5 (.600) against the right-hander with a pair of home runs. Montas enters the weekend at 6-9 with a pedestrian 4.70 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. As for his home run numbers, the Milwaukee hurler owns a 1.21 HR/9 rate. I think it's worth a sprinkle on Hillard to go yard at 7/1 considering his prior success against Montas.
Kyle Schwarber (+360) & Bryce Harper (+475)
The Phillies are heating up again, and they enter the weekend riding a five-game winning streak. They'll turn to Zack Wheeler to try and keep things going. The Marlins opt for Edward Cabrera in this divisional tilt, which is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET from loanDepot Park in Miami, FL.
Cabrera's underwhelming season continues, as the 26-year-old comes into tonight's game at 3-6 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. The right-hander has been susceptible to the long ball, registering a 1.66 HR/9 rate. That's the seventh-highest mark among today's starting pitchers. His HR/FB rate is an insane 21.5%, which is easily the highest compared to any starter who has thrown at least 75.0 innings this season.
The inability to keep the ball in the yard likely won't bode well for Cabrera, especially considering he takes on a Philadelphia offense ranked ninth in home runs (170). Thirty-two of those tanks belong to Kyle Schwarber, the ninth-most in the league. Bryce Harper has slugged 26 home runs this year (22nd-most). I'm playing both guys to go deep tonight. Schwarber is on a tear again, launching four home runs in his last three games. He's 2-for-12 (.167) against Cabrera with a home run. Not overpowering numbers, but the leadoff man is always a threat to go yard. As for Harper, he's 3-for-7 (.429) against the Marlins starter with a home run and a double. I'm locking in both of these stars to go yard in the 305 tonight.
Highest HR/9 Starting Pitchers Today
- Brandon Williamson (2.70, 3.1 IP)
- Zebby Matthews (2.65, 17.0 IP)
- Mason Black (2.33, 19.1 IP)
- Nick Pivetta (1.84, 117.1 IP)
- Samuel Aldegheri (1.80, 5.0 IP)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: